OptionVotes
NO
YES
6034
3354
OptionProbability
Task 2 will be achieved (understand novels)
Task 6 will be achieved (write 10k lines of code)
Task 10 will be achieved (write formally verifiable proofs)
Task 1 will be achieved (understand a movie)
Task 3 will be achieved (write biographies)
Task 5 will be achieved (write legal briefs)
Task 4 will be achieved (video gaming)
Task 9 will be achieved (Nobel level science)
Miles will win the bet
Task 7 will be achieved (write Pulitzer calibre books)
Task 8 will be achieved (write Oscar level screenplays)
The bet will be annulled
Miles will win the bet by the end of 2026
Miles will win the bet by the end of 2025
92
91
88
84
81
80
65
42
35
30
29
22
3
1
Sam Altman
Elon Musk
Jensen Huang
Mark Zuckerberg
Dario Amodei
roon
Miles Brundage
Eliezer Yudkowsky
The Pope
Tim Cook
Donald Trump
Daniel Kokotajlo
Satya Nadella
Sundar Pichai
Xi Jinping
Dwarkesh Patel
Sam Bankman-Fried
Kamala Harris
85
68
57
52
51
50
45
44
43
39
36
34
31
28
20
8