OptionProbability
Tristan Buckmaster publishes a follow-up statement by end of Friday
OpenAI makes a statement by Friday
OpenAI claims to have solved Navier-Stokes by the end of September
Alpoge tweets about this by Friday
Sebastien Bubeck makes a statement by the end of Tuesday (not just his quick tweet)
An apology is issued by Sebastian Bubeck
TomRocksMaths does YT video on drama by close
Anthropic makes an ad referencing OpenAI’s perceived misconduct before March 2027
Another Millennium prize problem falls by the end of the month
Tristan Buckmaster publishes a statement explicitly accusing OpenAI of using their data after seeing Open AI's proof.
It's confirmed that OpenAI trained on Buckmaster's data
Legal action is initiated by or against Tristan Buckmaster
someone committed some wrong-doing
OpenAI takes the one million USD prize
An apology is issued by Tristan Buckmaster
Tristan Buckmaster deletes the original statement
Anthropic claims to have solved Navier-Stokes by the end of September
A Lean error or bug is found in the formal proof
Tristan Buckmaster and/or Levent Alpoge are awarded the Millenium Prize (will resolve once clear who gets Navier-Stokes, not at end of Sep)
Sebastien Bubeck leaves/is fired from OpenAI by end of September
OpenAI admits to reading and using Buckmaster’s chat logs (not just incidentally training on them)
The ultimate post claiming to have solved Navier-Stokes is joint (at least two of OpenAI, Buckmaster, Anthropic)
OpenAI admits to using Buckmaster’s chat logs in some way (including model training)
Anthropic makes an official statement/post by Friday
A poll of Manifolders on Friday “sides with” OpenAI over Buckmaster/Alpoge
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
17
16
13
13
12
10
9
8
6
5
5
5
3
2
0
0
0
0
