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Prediction markets for Buterin

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

Jan 2, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38580242

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Other

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Larry Ellison

Mark Zuckerberg

Bernard Arnault

Satoshi Nakamoto

Sergey Brin

Masayoshi Son

Donald Trump

Michael Saylor

Bill Gates

Warren Buffett

me

Steve Ballmer

Gautam Adani

Mukesh Ambani

An AGI

Brian Armstrong

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

Tim Draper

Jack Dorsey

Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

@Mira

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Amancio Ortega

Carlos Slim Helu

Vitalik Buterin

Eric Schmidt

Dave Tepper

Ken Griffin

Eduardo Saverin

Morris Chang

46

25

7

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto

Jul 8, 10:15 PMJul 7, 6:59 AM

8912181

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Sinclair Chen

Craig Wright

Satoshi Nakamoto

Peter Todd

An Intelligence Agency

Wei Dai

Dorian Nakamoto

Jack Dorsey

Steve Sokolowski

Curtis Yarvin

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Elon Musk

Vitalik Buterin

[INVALID]

@Mira

[Invalid]

@jim

31

24

15

9

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Will Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 29, 3:46 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.61%chance

307573

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

947

Will Vitalik Buterin have a boyfriend/husband (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.58%chance

212514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2429

716

Will Vitalik Buterin have a girlfriend/wife (at least once) before 2026?

Jan 5, 4:49 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

23.88%chance

172272

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1756

583

Will we see the first crypto trillionaire by 2030?

Mar 3, 6:20 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

322166

OptionProbability

No

Yes

Yes, Vitalik Buterin

Yes, Changpeng Zhao

Yes, Brian Armstrong

Yes, Charlie Lee

Yes, but someone else

79

25

17

15

15

14

11

Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.13%chance

281190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1367

665

Will Vitalik Buterin be found guilty of fraud before 2028?

Nov 18, 10:55 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

3.83%chance

18958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1156

961

Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?

Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

16891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1451

881

Will Vitalik Buterin have a Horvath DNAm age lower than his biological age?

Jan 3, 8:12 AMJan 1, 4:01 PM

71.13%chance

15721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

958

Is vitalik buterin more deuterated than the average human

Jan 24, 3:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.16%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

74

34

Will Vitalik Buterin have an OMICm age more than 6 years younger than his chrnological age?

Nov 10, 9:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

63

40

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