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Prediction markets for Byrne
Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
15%chance
307794
OptionVotes
2286
457
Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
23.47%chance
177227
OptionVotes
2427
402
Will Villeneuve's DUNE part 2 receive a higher IMDB rating than DUNE part 1 by end of 2026?
Sep 13, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
93.02%chance
886539
OptionVotes
3608
382
Will Amazon announce plans to spin off one or more businesses?
Sep 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
13.39%chance
515695
OptionVotes
3414
512
Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
10.29%chance
214300
OptionVotes
2687
574
Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 1:04 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM
14.47%chance
213760
OptionVotes
2380
283
Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM
23.33%chance
233405
OptionVotes
1363
839
OptionProbability
72
70
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
45
45
42
41
41
39
32
31
31
31
31
25
25
20
20
20
14
8
8
5
"Boat Owners Only" sign - correct interpretation? at Morro Bay, CA
Nov 25, 8:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
151456
OptionProbability
86
77
77
75
74
65
58
57
57
56
56
52
50
50
50
49
47
46
44
44
39
38
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
34
34
32
31
25
20
18
OptionProbability
79
11
7
2
1
Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?
Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
72.64%chance
12318
OptionVotes
1120
938
Will an AI tool be able to generate a feature-length movie about the OpenAI drama before the regular movie comes out?
Nov 20, 8:48 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM
21.18%chance
8285
OptionVotes
206
168