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Prediction markets for Camp

Internment Camps in Trump’s America?

Nov 8, 4:56 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

59.92%chance

519574

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1223

818

Will I eventually make USACO Camp

Oct 26, 10:14 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

34.76%chance

142067

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1370

730

Will "This might be the last AI Safety Camp" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 16, 12:49 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5.85%chance

21292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2290

874

Will there be concentration camps in Taiwan before 2040?

May 27, 8:41 AMMar 5, 9:59 PM

31%chance

191096

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

Following the Supreme Court ruling, will Minneapolis add criminal penalties to its public camping ban before 2026?

Aug 18, 3:58 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

27.16%chance

6861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1647

621

More manas (boot camp stock)

Jul 12, 11:47 AMDec 31, 12:59 AM

4757

OptionProbability

Go LONG

Go SHORT

80

20

Which calamities will affect the Future Turtles camp at Burning Man in 2025?

Mar 11, 8:48 PMSep 10, 6:59 AM

13693

OptionProbability

Dust Storm 🌪️

Vehicle Breakdown 🚗

Lost Camp Members 🔍

Extreme Heat 🥵

Power Outage ⚡

Medical Emergency 🚑

Food Poisoning 🤢

Plague (🐸 / 🪳 / 🍤 )

Theft / Burglary 🔒

Structural Collapse 🏚️

Water Shortage 💧

Fire 🔥

Sexual Assault 🚩

Rain 🌧️ / Flooding

Psychotic Break 🧠 ⚡️

94

85

83

71

66

58

55

37

34

27

25

24

23

9

6

Will Gitmo or Cecot transition from concentration camps to full blown extermination camps by the 2028 US election?

Apr 1, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

20.27%chance

10299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

50

KnownAsJason makes Usaco camp for 2025-2026 USACO season?

Jul 21, 5:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.49%chance

2230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

292

34

Will the US accuse the PRC of putting Taiwanese people into Concentration Camps any time through 2028?

Sep 11, 1:10 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

35%chance

8210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

104

Will I ever make physics camp?

May 15, 2:36 AMJul 2, 2:34 AM

23.42%chance

7166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

55

Will SBF go to “camp”?

Jan 3, 5:43 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.58%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168

55

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