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Prediction markets for Carlsen

Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?

Dec 7, 11:40 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

2.69%chance

469713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8733

272

Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031?

Jun 6, 12:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7.54%chance

569525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3248

537

Will Magnus Carlsen be dethroned from his #1 spot in FIDE rating before GTA 6 is released?

Sep 22, 12:52 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

5%chance

215330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4359

229

Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?

Oct 1, 1:45 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

11.36%chance

323866

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2406

588

Will Magnus Carlsen crack 2900?

Jan 25, 4:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.24%chance

333517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

935

Will Magnus Carlsen, the world chess #1 since 2011, be ranked #1 in 2029.1.1?

Aug 7, 8:30 AMDec 1, 2:59 PM

24.43%chance

423036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1383

828

Is Magnus Carlsen on Manifold?

Oct 25, 5:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.49%chance

152835

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3430

858

Hikaru Nakamura and Magnus Carlsen play world-championship-style classical match before 2030

Feb 25, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.23%chance

122000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2359

424

Will Magnus Carlsen compete in a Candidate's tournament before 2029?

Apr 10, 3:10 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

15.45%chance

191063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1689

811

Will Magnus Carlsen have two children by May 2030?

Mar 21, 10:47 PMJan 6, 6:59 AM

56.04%chance

15495

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1343

576

Magnus Carlsen runs for public office before 2045

Apr 13, 2:41 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

19.45%chance

17438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

954

Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2028?

Jan 11, 3:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.16%chance

8263

OptionVotes

YES

NO

166

133

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