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Prediction markets for Cash

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36%chance

3415050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6351

3156

Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 18 months?

Mar 29, 6:43 PMJan 15, 7:59 AM

53.7%chance

644087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1680

1168

(Cash prizes if you’re right!) Should I do a cheap outdoor wedding?

Jun 10, 2:03 AMSep 14, 11:59 PM

58%chance

223202

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1175

851

300M subsidy: Will there be a bank run on manifold (within 12 months of cash payouts starting)?

Apr 23, 5:01 AMSep 18, 1:59 PM

6.72%chance

161744

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1757

361

Will any country ban cash/ physical currency by 2030?

Mar 11, 9:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

14.67%chance

211493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

910

By 31 December 2026, will the Congress pass a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Nov 7, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

20.41%chance

61215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1975

506

At the beginning of 2032, will people in the United States still be using physical coins or cash on a frequent basis?

Feb 10, 12:06 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

62.38%chance

331184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

824

On resolution, will I think cash transfers to poor people have significant long-term improvements in Subjective Well Being? 10% chance to resolve each year

Nov 27, 11:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.2%chance

16546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

988

961

By 31 December 2025, will President Trump or President-elect Trump refer to a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Nov 7, 4:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.31%chance

5527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1516

660

Will Kalshi continue offering interest on cash AND open positions until the conclusion of 2026?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

64.64%chance

8467

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1352

740

Will "Pay Risk Evaluators in Cash, Not Equity" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 7, 9:02 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.71%chance

2201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1192

972

Will you still be able to buy crypto anonymously via cash in the mail on LocalCoinSwap at the start of 2030?

May 11, 7:02 AMJan 3, 4:59 AM

43.58%chance

426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

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