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Prediction markets for Cash

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support unconditional cash transfers before 2027?

Dec 18, 3:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.44%chance

3815185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6424

3116

By 31 December 2026, will the Congress pass a DBCFT (Destination Based Cash Flow Tax)?

Nov 7, 4:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

9.41%chance

102510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3102

322

Will any country ban cash/ physical currency by 2030?

Mar 11, 9:21 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

14.06%chance

231572

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1329

901

At the beginning of 2032, will people in the United States still be using physical coins or cash on a frequent basis?

Feb 10, 12:06 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

64.38%chance

331234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1047

874

Will Kalshi continue offering interest on cash AND open positions until the conclusion of 2026?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

80.85%chance

121176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2055

487

If a third party starts allowing Manifold users to cash out their mana for real money, will Manifold shut it down?

Mar 17, 7:42 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

93.29%chance

8908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

399

116

Will unlimited 3% cash back on the Robinhood Gold Card last at least 2 years?

Nov 15, 5:49 AMJul 15, 4:48 AM

91.82%chance

7281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

335

30

Which upcoming 2026 superhero/comic book movie wins the triple crown: fans, critics, cash?

Mar 23, 1:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7207

OptionProbability

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Other

Avengers: Doomsday

Clayface

Supergirl

68

16

8

6

2

Will Cameco 2027 free cash flow exceed 500M CAD?

Feb 20, 4:26 PMMar 31, 4:00 AM

68.86%chance

3165

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

What will the final AD cash-deposit rate (Russia-wide entity) be for unwrought palladium?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMOct 31, 5:48 PM

55.95%chance

1127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

887

Will Cameco 2030 free cash flow exceed 800M CAD?

Feb 20, 4:26 PMMar 31, 4:00 AM

67.61%chance

293

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144

69

Willl i (Phillip Kalstrup) cash a pokemon tcg major before 2027?

Jan 28, 9:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.78%chance

428

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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