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Prediction markets for Chai

Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?

Jan 22, 11:16 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

1.15%chance

316855132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119785

2471

Who will be confirmed by the Senate as the next Chairman of the CFTC?

Dec 13, 5:37 AMDec 31, 1:03 AM

26257496

OptionProbability

Another person

Caroline Pham

Brian Quintenz

Summer Mersinger

Jill Sommers

Josh Sterling

82

10

3

2

2

2

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026?

Jan 19, 5:08 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

36.89%chance

7938416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2767

566

Will a big transformer LM compose these facts without chain of thought by 2026? (harder question version)

Jan 19, 4:49 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.56%chance

4415756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1513

544

Next Fed chair to have a degree in economics?

Apr 18, 12:20 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM

79.79%chance

152831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1987

503

Will Ryan Reynolds and Rob McelHenney still be co-chairmen of Wrexham football club on 1st January 2026?

Jun 20, 7:33 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

89.28%chance

112082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2886

346

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will we see a POTUS wielding a chainsaw over his head before EOY 2050?

Feb 18, 8:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.35%chance

401314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

880

Will an American national fast food chain use lab-grown/cultured meat in a product by 2030?

Jan 16, 11:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.44%chance

33755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1355

872

Will "Towards a Typology of Strange LLM Chains-of-T..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 10, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.91%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

974

When will making an Iced Chai Latte at Starbucks be almost completely automated?

Aug 22, 3:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

769

OptionProbability

2028 or 2029

Later than EOY 2031.

2026 or 2027

2030 or 2031

2023, 2024 or 2025

27

21

18

18

17

Will "Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.13%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

866

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