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Prediction markets for Chai

Next Fed chair to have a degree in economics?

Apr 18, 12:20 AMApr 1, 10:59 PM

2.61%chance

237768

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

24

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Will someone disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain by disrupting high-purity quartz mines by EOY 2028?

Mar 11, 10:50 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.58%chance

321438

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

902

Will we see a POTUS wielding a chainsaw over his head before EOY 2050?

Feb 18, 8:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

20.35%chance

401314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1338

880

Will an American national fast food chain use lab-grown/cultured meat in a product by 2030?

Jan 16, 11:17 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.43%chance

35906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

863

Will evidence emerge that Bo Xilai kidnapped Xi Jinping during a power struggle prior to Xi's ascension to Chairman?

Apr 9, 10:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

7.09%chance

21723

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1144

962

AI starts crypto trading, seize the entirety of value from every chain and token, ultimately driving them to zero? 📉

Apr 1, 11:18 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

6.17%chance

12628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

915

Trump creates and appoints a shadow Fed chair?

Apr 22, 11:07 AMMay 30, 10:59 PM

16.95%chance

10375

OptionVotes

YES

NO

582

569

Double digit US inflation within six months of Jerome Powell's leaving as Fed chair?

Apr 21, 12:20 AMDec 31, 1:18 AM

9.97%chance

10312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

933

Will "Towards a Typology of Strange LLM Chains-of-T..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 10, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.91%chance

2260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

974

When will making an Iced Chai Latte at Starbucks be almost completely automated?

Aug 22, 3:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

769

OptionProbability

2028 or 2029

Later than EOY 2031.

2026 or 2027

2030 or 2031

2023, 2024 or 2025

27

21

18

18

17

Will "Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 15, 9:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.13%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

866

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