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Prediction markets for Chen

Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 19, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

7647173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3154

1257

Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?

Sep 25, 8:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.3%chance

18545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

947

Will Bryan Johnson adopt Alex K. Chen (#ParrotThiel)?

Sep 16, 1:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.89%chance

4422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

48

Will Austin Chen be a millionaire by 2028?

Sep 11, 2:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.52%chance

3236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143

86

Will Austin Chen try 5-MeO-DMT?

Jan 16, 12:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.66%chance

3212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

322

70

Will Austin Chen get a dog🐕 by EOY 2030?

Mar 18, 6:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.77%chance

4125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

294

116

Will I see Ray Chen perform?

Mar 25, 6:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.41%chance

578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

106

Will Austin Chen win a game of Civ6 under Emperor difficulty level?

Jan 16, 12:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32.22%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

111

Will Austin Chen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?

Sep 21, 5:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

139

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will we have biography of >50 of the rationalists/EAs/TESCREALS written by Chen Shou, Sima Qian, or Plutarch by EOY2050?

Jan 4, 9:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.02%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will someone accidentally call Sigil Wen "Kevin", as in, "Kevin Wang" or "Kevin Chen" or "Kevin Huang" by EOY2029?

Sep 19, 4:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Andrew Chen still be the most famous alumni from UW's early entrance program by EOY 2035?

Jul 18, 3:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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