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Prediction markets for Chen

Will Austin Chen (Manifold cofounder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 19, 3:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

7647173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3154

1257

Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?

Sep 25, 8:50 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

79.3%chance

18545

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

947

Will Austin Chen try 5-MeO-DMT?

Jan 16, 12:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3.66%chance

3212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

322

70

Will Chen Ning Yang become the longest-lived Nobel laureate ever?

Dec 17, 4:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52.82%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

99

81

Will Bryan Johnson adopt Alex K. Chen (#ParrotThiel)?

Sep 16, 1:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.66%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

144

64

Will I see Ray Chen perform?

Mar 25, 6:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35.41%chance

578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

106

Will Chen Ning Yang outlive Lada Nuzhna?

May 27, 5:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.09%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

Will Austin Chen win a game of Civ6 under Emperor difficulty level?

Jan 16, 12:22 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

32.22%chance

451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

159

111

Will Austin Chen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?

Sep 21, 5:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.23%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will Austin Chen ever develop obesity by 2040

Feb 16, 5:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.78%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

56

Will someone accidentally call Sigil Wen "Kevin", as in, "Kevin Wang" or "Kevin Chen" or "Kevin Huang" by EOY2029?

Sep 19, 4:37 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Andrew Chen still be the most famous alumni from UW's early entrance program by EOY 2035?

Jul 18, 3:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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