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Prediction markets for Chill

Will ICE be deployed at polling stations during the 2026 midterm elections?

Jan 19, 10:53 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

38.69%chance

728679

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

If I expand my trading dashboard to cover other real money markets, will I get into legal trouble?

Jan 11, 1:12 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.48%chance

112192

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3090

324

Will a mainstream movie or TV series depict Muhammad or Allah in an entertaining way before 2035?

Aug 30, 11:57 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.75%chance

341162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

312

101

What will be the cool word for "cool" in 2032?

Sep 20, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22394

OptionProbability

retro

6 7

Other

based

cool

sigma

spice

heat

whale

TRANCHE

loose

numb

left

sunk

cought

caught

cot

warm

tepid

luke

damp

jank

sweet

sick

gas

沉着的 chénzhuóde

cloe

swag

22

20

20

13

10

6

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Destiny's orbiters ETF (permanent)

Mar 23, 12:54 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

5243

OptionProbability

YES

NO

137

79

Irene Coin

Apr 10, 9:44 AM

1199

OptionProbability

NO

YES

100

100

Will "The Bone-Chilling Evil of Factory Farming " make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 7:17 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.61%chance

2100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

791

Is ICE going to be deployed in polls this midterms?

Mar 31, 2:36 PMNov 1, 11:59 PM

50%chance

4100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will "Consider chilling out in 2028" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 22, 6:52 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

I'm looking to connect with instructional designers. I'll give 500 mana for each connection you help me make.

Nov 21, 2:19 PM

00

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