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Prediction markets for Chip

Will Elon Musk put a Neuralink chip in his brain before 2030?

Jan 30, 9:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23.89%chance

26333107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2999

2076

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before he passes away?

Jan 30, 7:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.33%chance

11317915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14461

8011

Which company’s chips will GPT-6 be trained on?

Jun 8, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7816538

OptionProbability

Nvidia

Microsoft

Other

AMD

OpenAI or another company founded by Sam Altman

Google

Intel

64

15

6

5

5

3

2

Will the USA have 20% or more of advanced logic chip production by 2032?

May 13, 5:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.6%chance

174959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

967

US bans TSMC from selling advanced AI chips to all Chinese companies in 2025?

Apr 20, 2:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.44%chance

171096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

972

Will I personally know someone with a Neuralink or other brain chip implant by the end of 2032?

Apr 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.86%chance

28693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2160

1924

China produces 3nm chips before 2027?

Mar 25, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.25%chance

8630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

838

Did the "Chinese spy chip" reported by Bloomberg ever exist?

Aug 10, 2:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.25%chance

22545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

934

Will a Magic card contain an NFC chip by 2030?

Mar 3, 3:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.46%chance

12541

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1511

662

US export restrictions lead to reported large-scale AI chip theft by end of 2026

Jan 16, 8:15 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

51.73%chance

6522

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1035

966

Will a top-100 chess player accuse another top-100 player of cheating at chess using a brain chip by EOY 2034 ?

Apr 20, 6:12 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

34.81%chance

12513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

871

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.12%chance

21376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

789

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