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Prediction markets for Christian

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Dec 30, 8:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1.51%chance

185413103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4147

955

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Dec 30, 6:37 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

2.17%chance

5211495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1752

939

Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2026?

Dec 31, 9:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.46%chance

259621

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5283

189

Will Elon Musk say he is a Christian before 2029?

Feb 12, 11:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

18.44%chance

408113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2103

475

Will the first ASI proclaim Christianity true?

Feb 10, 1:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

9.44%chance

522444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

991

965

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

30.69%chance

452349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1637

365

Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030

Aug 15, 2:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.48%chance

122330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2430

411

Will a Christian Rapture-Like Event (CRLE) happen before the World Cup 2026, as foretold by Bluesky prophecy?

Sep 23, 3:17 PMJul 1, 11:59 PM

132219

OptionProbability

CRLE happens by or on World Cup 2026

CRLE happens in 2025

CRLE happens in 2025-September

5

1

0

Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?

Aug 14, 5:41 PMSep 12, 11:59 PM

80.43%chance

71686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2028

493

Bart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?

Sep 30, 6:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.79%chance

11500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2500

400

Is America on the brink of a Christian revival?

May 1, 1:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.8%chance

12558

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

974

Will "Christian homeschoolers in the year 3000" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 18, 5:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.5%chance

3256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

969

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