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Prediction markets for Christian

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Dec 30, 8:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

1.77%chance

191415118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3566

964

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Dec 30, 6:37 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

2.17%chance

5211495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1752

939

Will Elon Musk say he is a Christian before 2029?

Feb 12, 11:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

15.86%chance

418313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2303

434

Will the first ASI proclaim Christianity true?

Feb 10, 1:15 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

10.05%chance

553123

OptionVotes

NO

YES

972

930

Will the percentage of U.S. adults identifying as Christian in the U.S. drop below 60% by the end of 2026?

Apr 13, 8:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 AM

38.29%chance

462486

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1464

458

Jordan Peterson becomes an Eastern Orthodox Christian before 2030

Aug 15, 2:26 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.48%chance

122330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2430

411

Christian Democrats still in Riksdag after next election?

Aug 14, 5:41 PMSep 12, 11:59 PM

84.97%chance

72036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2378

421

Bart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?

Sep 30, 6:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

13.33%chance

21550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2550

392

Will Usha Vance convert to Christianity before the election?

Oct 31, 3:11 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

34.5%chance

19818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

127

Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027?

Jan 6, 4:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.11%chance

3371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

431

23

Will "Christian homeschoolers in the year 3000" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 18, 5:09 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.5%chance

3256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

969

Will the first person to walk on Mars be a Christian?

Apr 7, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.6%chance

672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

154

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