OptionProbability
Mainstream Media
Letitia James
January 6th Committee
Jimmy Kimmel
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
LQBTQ / Trans People
Migrants
Jack Smith
Vaccine mandates
Ann Selzer
The Bidens (Joe, Ashley, Jill, and/or Hunter Biden)
Elon Musk
Anthony Fauci
Gen. Mark Milley
The New York Times (NYT)
Universities
Paper straws
Leakers
Blinken
Maine
Due Process
National Institutes of Health
Solar Energy
Miles Taylor
Alejandro Mayorkas
Stephen Colbert
John Bolton
Wind Energy
James Comey
John Brennan
Panama
JB Pritzker
Public Libraries
Alexander Vindman
Progressive YouTube Influencers
Tucker Carlson
The Metropolitan Museum of Art
Bruce Springsteen
Zohran Mamdani
Nancy Pelosi
The Atlantic
the National Archives
Disney
Any professional sports league
The American Psychiatric Association
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
Denmark
Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)
Seth Myers
Bill Barr
Susan Collins (R-ME)
Michael Cohen
Mariann Edgar Budde
Wikipedia
Any non-Tesla electric car manufacturer
Ken Klippenstein
The American Medical Association
Christopher Steele
John Kelly
Emmanuel Macron
Jeff Bezos
Narendra Modi
Greenland
Any Manifold User
E. Jean Carroll
Fluoride
TIME magazine
Joe Biden
Jen Psaki (former White House Press Secretary and current MSNBC host)
Brad Raffensperger
WIRED Magazine
Kristi Noem
Liz Cheney
The San Diego Zoo
American sign language signers or interpreters
JD Vance
The population of penguins and seabirds on the Heard and McDonald Islands
Any fashion or cosmetics brand
Mike Pence
Barack Obama
Russell Vought
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Jezebel (website)
Black Nationals
SSRIs
Beyoncé
Pete Hegseth
Rosie O'Donnell
Alec Baldwin
Taylor Swift
BlueSky
Not Elected
Chappell Roan
Bill Burr
Steve Wynn
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
83
73
70
69
69
68
61
59
58
55
55
54
54
51
50
49
48
46
44
43
39
37
36
35
34
34
34
33
31
28
25
25
23
23
21
21
21
20
19
18
18
17
16
15
12
12
12
12
11
9
9
8
8
7
6
4
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Gunplay
Bond will be a man
Bond drives a car
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Blue-eyed Bond
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
World capital other than London appears on screen
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
Q appears
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Hacking electronics of some form
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Prison/jail scene
Black market trafficking
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Bond has facial hair
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Desert scene
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Death of a Bond love interest
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
Bond will be in a submarine
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond is LQBTQ+
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
Bond rides an animal
Nazis (neo- counts)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Underwater combat
Bond goes to space
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A hamburger appears on screen
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Assplay
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
Bond plays Russian roulette
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
A pinball machine will appear.
Gay sex scene
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Pirates
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Feature Nightcore music
Bond uses chopsticks
Supernatural entities
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Released in 2026
Nuclear explosion
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
Vampires
Bond vapes
Bond won't be Caucasian
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
The fourth wall is broken
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
98
97
97
96
95
95
94
93
91
91
90
90
90
90
89
87
87
86
85
85
84
83
82
80
77
77
76
75
72
72
70
69
69
69
68
68
68
65
62
60
60
59
59
59
58
58
57
57
56
55
55
55
54
53
53
53
53
52
51
50
50
50
49
49
49
49
48
48
48
46
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
43
43
43
43
43
42
41
41
39
39
39
38
38
38
37
37
37
37
37
36
36
36
35
35
35
34
34
33
32
32
32
32
32
32
32
31
31
30
30
30
29
29
29
29
29
28
28
28
28
27
26
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
22
22
21
21
21
21
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
12
12
11
11
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Mainstream Media
Letitia James
LQBTQ / Trans People
Migrants
Dr. Fauci
LGBTQ+ / Transgender service members
January 6th Committee
Jack Smith
Blinken
Jimmy Kimmel
Alejandro Mayorkas
Fluoride
The Bidens
Miles Taylor
Zohran Mamdani
Jerome Powell
Bruce Springsteen
Merrick Garland
Elon Musk
Michael Cohen
Christopher Steele
Texas Democrats (as a group)
VAWA self-petitioners
Liz Cheney
Furries
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Vindman
FDIC
Rev. Budde/ Episcopal Church
Susie Wiles
Beyonce
Mike Pence
Brad Raffensperger
Black Nationals
E. Jean Carroll
Rosie O'Donnell
Karoline Leavitt
Jeff Bezos
Taylor Swift
Alec Baldwin
Kevin McCarthy
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
99
93
90
83
80
80
78
67
66
58
56
53
50
50
50
49
49
45
43
41
41
39
35
33
31
25
23
14
13
8
5
3
3
OptionProbability
Other
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Jamie Dimon
J. D. Vance
Kamala Harris
Ted Cruz
Gavin Newsom
Tulsi Gabbard
Cory Booker
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Gretchen Whitmer
Pete Buttigieg
Tim Scott
J. B. Pritzker
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.
Elise Stefanik
Josh Shapiro
Mike Pence
Kristi Noem
Andy Beshear
Spencer Cox
Glenn Youngkin
Ro Khanna
Marco Rubio
Jackson Hinkle
Dean Phillips
Donald Trump
Elon Musk
Aella
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Xi Jinping
Tammy Duckworth
Ivanka Trump
Mike Johnson
Tucker Carlson
Mark Zuckerberg
An AGI
Jared Kushner
Zvi Mowshowitz
Curtis Yarvin
Mike Dunleavy
Katie Hobbs
Sarah Huckabee Sanders
Jared Polis
Brian Kemp
Scott Perry
Joe Biden
Josh Green
Eric Holcomb
Kim Reynolds
Jeff Landry
Wes Moore
Maura Healey
Tim Walz
Tate Reeves
Mike Parson
Greg Gianforte
Christopher Sununu
Jim Pillen
Joe Lombardo
Phil Murphy
Michelle Lujan Grisham
Kathy Hochul
Roy Cooper
Doug Burgum
Kevin Stitt
Tina Kotek
Bill Lee
Greg Abbott
Phil Scott
Mark Gordon
Tammy Baldwin
Taylor Swift
Josh Hawley
Raphael Warnock
Luigi Mangione
Chuck Norris
Robert Francis Prevost
57
5
4
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
19
16
10
6
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Andrew Tate
Nick Mullen
Adam Friedland
Tumbles
Medhi Hasan
Sam Harris
Brian & Ed Krassenstein
Dave Rubin
Richard Hanania
Ezra Klein
Mark Cuban
Joe Rogan
Cremieux
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)
Christopher Rufo
Jack Dorsey
Robert Sapolsky
Ray Kurzweil
Mark Kelly
shane gillis
matt mccusker
Matt Taibbi
Vaush (after Jan 1st 2024)
Andrew Yang
Alexandra Cooper
Stephen Colbert
Tim walz
Tristan Tate
Jim Jefferies
Don Lemon
Hasanabi (after Jan 1st 2024)
Theo Von
Julian Assange
Vivek Ramaswamy
John Oliver
Elon Musk
Robert F Kennedy Jr
Mr Girl (after Jan 1st 2024)
Justin Trudeau
Kamala Harris
Tucker Carlson
Mark Zuckerberg
Bill Mahrer
Jon Stewart
Mr. Beast
Taylor Swift
Dwarkesh Patel
JD Vance
Barack Obama
Michelle Obama
Donald Trump
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
75
72
67
63
59
59
55
52
50
50
50
50
44
43
43
41
41
41
39
38
37
33
28
27
25
24
24
23
21
21
20
19
17
16
15
15
14
12
12
10
7
6
OptionProbability
Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)
Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)
Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)
Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)
Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)
Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)
Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)
Drake (Oct 24, 1986)
Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)
Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)
Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)
Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)
Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)
Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)
Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)
Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)
Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)
Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)
Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)
Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)
Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)
Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)
Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)
Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)
Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)
Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)
Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)
Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)
Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)
Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)
Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)
Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)
Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)
Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)
Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)
Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)
Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)
Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)
Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)
Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)
Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)
Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)
Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)
Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)
Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)
Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)
Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)
Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)
Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)
JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)
Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)
Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)
Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)
Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)
Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)
Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)
Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)
Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)
Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)
John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)
Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)
Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)
Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)
Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)
Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)
Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)
Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)
Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)
Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)
Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)
Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)
Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)
Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)
Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)
Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)
George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)
Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)
Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)
Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)
Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)
Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)
Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)
Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)
Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)
Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)
Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)
Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)
Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)
Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)
Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)
Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)
Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)
King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)
Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)
Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)
Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)
Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)
Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)
Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)
Bernie Madoff
James Earl Jones (Jan 17, 1931)
94
93
91
89
89
86
85
81
80
80
80
79
77
77
76
74
74
74
73
72
71
69
69
69
69
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
67
66
63
62
62
61
59
59
59
57
55
55
55
54
54
53
53
53
53
49
48
45
43
43
42
41
38
37
36
36
35
33
32
32
32
32
31
30
30
29
28
28
27
27
26
24
21
21
19
17
16
14
13
11
10
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Viktor Orban (Hungary Prime Minister)
Gustavo Petro (Colombian President)
Christopher Luxon (New Zealand Prime Minister)
Benjamin Netanyahu (Israel Prime Minister)
Pedro Sanchez (Spain Prime Minister)
Anthony Albanese (Australia Prime Minister)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Ukraine Prime Minister)
Nayib Bukele (El Salvador President)
Vladimir Putin (Russia President)
Cyril Ramaphosa (South Africa Prime Minister)
Javier Milei (Argentina President)
Emmanuel Macron (France President)
Donald Trump (United States President)
100
97
55
48
32
17
15
13
12
12
11
9
8
OptionProbability
Jacob Misiorowski
Other
Christopher Sanchez
Paul Skenes
Shohei Ohtani
86
6
5
2
1
OptionProbability
Tim Gaspar
Barri Worth Girvan
Christopher Robert Celona
Lehi White
Other
Jon Rawlings
74
18
3
2
2
1
OptionProbability
Other
David Tennant (Again)
Matt Smith (Again)
Peter Capaldi (Again)
Lydia West
Olly Alexander
Michael Sheen
Omari Douglas
Lenny Henry
Michaela Coel
T'Nia Miller
Hugh Grant
Ben Daniels
Bernard Cribbins
Bill Nighy
Christopher Eccleston (Again)
Josh O'Connor
Jack Lowden
Lashana Lynch
Danny Dyer
Idris Elba
Toby Jones
Diane Morgan
Joanna Lumley
Richard Hearne
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Billie Piper
51
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Stuart Robert
Sam Dastyari
Christopher Pyne
68
25
10
