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People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
OptionProbability
Mainstream Media
Letitia James
January 6th Committee
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
LQBTQ / Trans People
Migrants
The Bidens (Joe, Ashley, Jill, and/or Hunter Biden)
Elon Musk
Anthony Fauci
Gen. Mark Milley
Universities
Paper straws
Blinken
Maine
Due Process
Alejandro Mayorkas
Jimmy Kimmel
Jack Smith
The New York Times (NYT)
Solar Energy
Miles Taylor
Stephen Colbert
John Bolton
James Comey
John Brennan
Zohran Mamdani
National Institutes of Health
Leakers
Panama
JB Pritzker
Wind Energy
Any professional sports league
Alexander Vindman
The Atlantic
Wikipedia
Bruce Springsteen
Denmark
Ann Selzer
John Kelly
Michael Cohen
Seth Myers
Nancy Pelosi
Bill Barr
Vaccine mandates
the National Archives
Any non-Tesla electric car manufacturer
Susan Collins (R-ME)
Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
Mariann Edgar Budde
Progressive YouTube Influencers
Ken Klippenstein
The American Medical Association
Christopher Steele
Jezebel (website)
The Metropolitan Museum of Art
TIME magazine
Public Libraries
Jeff Bezos
Emmanuel Macron
Narendra Modi
Any Manifold User
Taylor Swift
E. Jean Carroll
Fluoride
Tucker Carlson
Disney
Joe Biden
Beyoncé
The American Psychiatric Association
Steve Wynn
Jen Psaki (former White House Press Secretary and current MSNBC host)
Jeffrey Goldberg (Atlantic columnist)
Brad Raffensperger
WIRED Magazine
Any fashion or cosmetics brand
Liz Cheney
Greenland
American sign language signers or interpreters
BlueSky
JD Vance
The population of penguins and seabirds on the Heard and McDonald Islands
Mike Pence
The San Diego Zoo
Barack Obama
Russell Vought
Pete Hegseth
Democratic Republic of the Congo
SSRIs
Black Nationals
Rosie O'Donnell
Alec Baldwin
Chappell Roan
Bill Burr
Not Elected
100
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94
92
90
83
81
73
70
56
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49
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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Car chase scene
Bond tells ≥1 joke
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
Blue-eyed Bond
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
Nazis (neo- counts)
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A pinball machine will appear.
Pirates
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Assplay
Bond plays Russian roulette
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionProbability
Christopher Luxon
Other
No one
Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke
Chris Hipkins
94
4
2
0
0
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
California is wildly overrated.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
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OptionProbability
Andrew Tate
Nick Mullen
Adam Friedland
Tumbles
Medhi Hasan
Sam Harris
Brian & Ed Krassenstein
Dave Rubin
Richard Hanania
Joe Rogan
Mark Cuban
Vaush (after Jan 1st 2024)
Cremieux
Christopher Rufo
Jack Dorsey
Robert Sapolsky
Ray Kurzweil
Ezra Klein
Mark Kelly
Tim walz
shane gillis
matt mccusker
Mr Girl (after Jan 1st 2024)
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)
Elon Musk
Julian Assange
Matt Taibbi
Hasanabi (after Jan 1st 2024)
Andrew Yang
Alexandra Cooper
Stephen Colbert
Vivek Ramaswamy
John Oliver
Tristan Tate
Tucker Carlson
Jim Jefferies
Don Lemon
Robert F Kennedy Jr
Mr. Beast
Theo Von
JD Vance
Justin Trudeau
Kamala Harris
Mark Zuckerberg
Bill Mahrer
Jon Stewart
Taylor Swift
Dwarkesh Patel
Barack Obama
Michelle Obama
Donald Trump
100
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OptionProbability
Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.
Prediction markets are good
[*] ...and things will improve in the future
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Authoritarian populism is bad actually
Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.
Most organized religion are false
Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]
Pineapple pizza tastes good
The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics
Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives
Liberal-democracy is good actually
Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.
Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.
The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world.
We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions.
Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site
Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.
The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.
Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.
If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
The United States doesn't need a strong third party.
Political libertarianism
Being a billionaire is morally wrong.
Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism
People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.
There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.
Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.
You should bet NO on this option
The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse
[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.
White people are the least racist of any racial group
Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
God is evil
A sandwich is a type of hot dog
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.
It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part
Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
China not having real democracy does more good than harm
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon
Dentistry is mostly wasted effort.
Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables
Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of
Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden
Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives
Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
The next American moon landing will be faked
Humans don't have free will.
AI art is better than human art
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work
The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism).
The first American moon landing was faked
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
Astrology is actually true.
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OptionProbability
Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)
Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)
Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)
Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)
Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)
Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)
Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)
Drake (Oct 24, 1986)
Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)
Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)
Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)
Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)
Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)
Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)
Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)
Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)
Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)
Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)
Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)
Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)
Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)
Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)
Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)
Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)
Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)
Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)
Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)
Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)
Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)
Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)
Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)
Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)
Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)
Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)
Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)
Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)
Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)
Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)
Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)
Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)
Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)
Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)
Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)
Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)
Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)
Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)
Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)
Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)
John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)
Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)
Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)
JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)
Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)
Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)
Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)
Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)
Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)
Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)
Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)
Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)
Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)
Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)
Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)
Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)
Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)
Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)
Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)
Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)
Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)
Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)
Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)
Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)
Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)
Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)
Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)
George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)
Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)
Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)
Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)
Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)
Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)
Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)
Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)
Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)
Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)
Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)
Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)
Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)
Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)
Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)
Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)
Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)
Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)
King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)
Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)
Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)
Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)
Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)
Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)
Bernie Madoff
James Earl Jones (Jan 17, 1931)
96
92
90
86
86
84
83
77
76
75
75
74
72
71
67
66
66
66
66
64
64
62
61
61
59
59
59
59
56
54
53
52
52
52
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
44
44
43
41
38
37
35
35
34
34
34
34
34
33
30
30
28
26
26
26
26
25
25
24
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
22
21
21
20
19
18
17
17
16
14
12
12
11
11
11
9
8
8
6
6
5
5
3
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Chlöe Swarbrick
David Seymour
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
Christopher Luxon
Winston Peters
Rawiri Waititi
Chris Hipkins
Marama Davidson
James Shaw
95
92
87
85
80
80
79
57
1
OptionProbability
Other
Andrej Karpathy
Terrence Tao
Brian T. Edwards
Marilyn vos Savant
Xi Jingping
Grigori Perelman
Christopher Langan
@jim
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Elon Musk
Donald Trump
Noam Chomsky
45
15
8
8
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
OptionProbability
Other
David Tennant (Again)
Matt Smith (Again)
Peter Capaldi (Again)
Lydia West
Olly Alexander
Michael Sheen
Omari Douglas
Lenny Henry
Michaela Coel
T'Nia Miller
Hugh Grant
Ben Daniels
Bernard Cribbins
Bill Nighy
Christopher Eccleston (Again)
Josh O'Connor
Jack Lowden
Lashana Lynch
Danny Dyer
Idris Elba
Toby Jones
Diane Morgan
Joanna Lumley
Richard Hearne
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Billie Piper
51
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Julie Menin
Christopher Marte
Other
Amanda Farías
Crystal Hudson
98
1
1
0
0
OptionProbability
Siddhartha Guatama (the Buddha) vs Jesus of Nazareth (the Christ)
Mao Zedong vs Hirohito
Gilgamesh vs Beowulf
Francis Bacon vs Kevin Bacon
Marco Polo vs Zheng He
Moctezuma II of the Aztec Empire vs Ramses II of Egypt
Leif Erikson vs Christopher Columbus
Genghis Khan vs Hernán Cortés
Margaret Thatcher (the iron lady) vs Reinhard Heydrich (the man with the iron heart)
Eminem vs Slim Shady
19
18
18
14
14
14
12
8
8
6