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OptionProbability
Bond will be a man
Gunplay
Bond drives a car
On screen fatalities
London will appear on screen
Car chase scene
Urban scene
Bond wears a suit/tuxedo
Bond tells ≥1 joke
Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"
A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.
A named character speaks in a language other than English
Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.
Bond drinks a martini
Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer
Opening action sequence
The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.
Gun Barrel Sequence
Sex scene
World capital other than London appears on screen
Hacking electronics of some form
Q appears
Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.
Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently
Bond uses explosives
The plot will be predominantly set in present day
Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts
The main theme song will be sung by a female
The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
Fatal-if-missed aerial jump
A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds
Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.
Asia will appear on screen
Someone goes through a pane of glass
A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent
It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)
The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.
"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned
Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)
Someone in the movie says the title
@HenriThunberg enjoys the film
It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die
The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.
South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen
The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.
Bond rides a motorcycle
A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it
>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release
Critics will say it's a return to classic bond
A sniper rifle is fired
At least a portion filmed in Canada
Blue-eyed Bond
There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting
Bond wields a Walther PPK
Interracial sex scene
Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)
Jungle / forest scene
M will be played by Ralph Fiennes
Bond flys an aircraft
James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government
Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.
Casino game scene
>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release
Bond parachutes
It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)
Bond wears shorts
Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present
>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release
Arctic scene
Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing
Bond gets slapped
Prison/jail scene
A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne
Black market trafficking
Someone climbs around on the outside of a building
Released in 2028
Skydiving
The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.
Bond licks something
Bond and a pond shown on screen together
Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)
someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)
Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)
Bond slaps someone
A scene shows James Bond naked
Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall
Death of a Bond love interest
James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.
A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)
Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth
Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)
There will be a voiced character that is an AI
Bond rides a bicycle
Torture
Bond receives a gunshot wound
A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens
Wilhelm scream
The title will refer to life and/or death
@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand
Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack
Bond drives a boat
A safe is cracked (any means possible)
Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)
James Bond plays poker
Bond commits arson
Cryptocurrency is referenced
Oral sex
Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar
Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen
Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time
Terrorists
US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)
Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case
Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.
Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen
A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot
Desert scene
Nazis (neo- counts)
The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)
Ski chase scene
Drug use
Someone/something is x-rayed
Thunderstorm
Dessert scene
An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)
President of the United States is mentioned
IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...
Robots
Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail
It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)
Bond has facial hair
Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick
Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)
There will be a promotional event in Fortnite
Bond wears a mask
Sharks
Cocaine or caviar appears on screen
James Bond plays baccarat
Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses
Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage
Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet
Bond will be in a submarine
Bond goes to space
Bond is LQBTQ+
Bond rides an animal
James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't
Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)
Main villain speaks Russian on screen
Bond has a disability
Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage
Mexico is shown on screen
Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen
Jetpack
The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)
A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)
Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)
An EMP device plays a central role.
Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned
At least one named character below 18 years old
Canada is shown on screen
Orgy
Will feature something that can turn invisible
Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)
Underwater combat
The word "fuck" is said more than once.
With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖
Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)
The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.
Bond is blond
Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone
Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)
A pinball machine will appear.
Pirates
Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift
Assplay
Bond plays Russian roulette
Emilia Clarke portrays a character
Bond won't be Caucasian
A hamburger appears on screen
Bond uses a VR headset
Bond has a neck tattoo
Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond
Nuclear explosion
Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine
Satanism
Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.
fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name
It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.
Gay sex scene
ChatGPT is referenced by any character
Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene
Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)
A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"
Theme song is performed by The Weeknd
San Francisco is shown on screen
Pegging
Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)
Horse cock on screen (flaccid)
Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz
A clocks shows the time 4:20
Feature Nightcore music
Supernatural entities
Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.
There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American
Bond uses chopsticks
Released in 2026
Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)
Any character says the word "anime"
Vampires
Bond vapes
The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.
Bond dies
The fourth wall is broken
Scat play
Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)
Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme
Horse cock on screen (erect)
Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).
The handkerchief code is a major plot element
James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."
Bond is vegan
It will be directed by a woman
Bond plays League of Legends
Destiny appears on screen
Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”
Dragons
Dinosaurs
It will be directed by Christopher Nolan
Bond hits the griddy
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OptionProbability
Denis Villeneuve
Gina Prince-Blythewood
Steve McQueen
Christopher Nolan
Edward Berger
Matthew Vaughn
Greta Gerwig
Emerald Fennell
Martin Campbell
Danny Boyle
Cary Fukunaga
Steven Spielberg
Chad Stahelski
Christopher McQuarrie
Chloé Zhao
Joseph Kosinski
Matt Reeves
Quentin Tarantino
Paul Greengrass
J.J. Abrams
Kathryn Bigelow
Park Chan-wook
Jordan Peele
Yann Demange
Alex Garland
Guillermo del Toro
Olivia Wilde
Robert Eggers
Lynne Ramsay
Guy Ritchie
Alfonso Cuarón
Other
99
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
It is not possible to multitask
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
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OptionProbability
Andrew Tate
Nick Mullen
Adam Friedland
Tumbles
Medhi Hasan
Sam Harris
Brian & Ed Krassenstein
Dave Rubin
Richard Hanania
Ezra Klein
Mark Cuban
Joe Rogan
Cremieux
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)
Christopher Rufo
Jack Dorsey
Robert Sapolsky
Ray Kurzweil
Mark Kelly
shane gillis
matt mccusker
Matt Taibbi
Vaush (after Jan 1st 2024)
Andrew Yang
Alexandra Cooper
Stephen Colbert
Tim walz
Tristan Tate
Jim Jefferies
Don Lemon
Hasanabi (after Jan 1st 2024)
Theo Von
Julian Assange
Vivek Ramaswamy
John Oliver
Elon Musk
Robert F Kennedy Jr
Mr Girl (after Jan 1st 2024)
Justin Trudeau
Kamala Harris
Tucker Carlson
Mark Zuckerberg
Bill Mahrer
Mr. Beast
Jon Stewart
Taylor Swift
JD Vance
Dwarkesh Patel
Barack Obama
Michelle Obama
Donald Trump
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
75
72
67
63
59
59
55
52
50
50
50
50
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43
43
41
41
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33
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OptionProbability
Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.
Prediction markets are good
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
[*] ...and things will improve in the future
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Authoritarian populism is bad actually
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.
Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]
Most organized religion are false
The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics
Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.
Pineapple pizza tastes good
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives
Liberal-democracy is good actually
Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.
Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.
The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world.
We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions.
Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site
Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.
Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.
The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]
If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.
California is wildly overrated.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
The United States doesn't need a strong third party.
Political libertarianism
Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism
People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.
There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.
[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.
Being a billionaire is morally wrong.
Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.
You should bet NO on this option
The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse
White people are the least racist of any racial group
Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
God is evil
A sandwich is a type of hot dog
Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.
China not having real democracy does more good than harm
It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part
Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon
Dentistry is mostly wasted effort.
Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables
Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of
Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden
Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives
Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.
The next American moon landing will be faked
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
Humans don't have free will.
AI art is better than human art
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work
The first American moon landing was faked
The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism).
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
Astrology is actually true.
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OptionProbability
Jimmy Donaldson (Mr.Beast) (May 7, 1998)
Taylor Swift (Dec 13, 1989)
Dua Lipa (Aug 22, 1995)
Ed Sheeran (Feb 17, 1991)
Mark Zuckerberg (May 14, 1984)
Ariana Grande (Jun 26, 1993)
Shohei Ohtani (Jul 5, 1994)
Drake (Oct 24, 1986)
Sam Bankman-Fried (Mar 6, 1992)
Lionel Messi (Jun 24, 1987)
Cristiano Ronaldo (Feb 5, 1985)
Rihanna (Feb 20, 1988)
Patrick Mahomes (Sep 17, 1995)
Travis Kelce (Oct 5, 1989)
Michael Phelps (Jun 30, 1985)
Usain Bolt (Aug 21 1986)
Beyonce (Sep 4, 1981)
Rafael Nadal (Jun 3, 1986)
Lebron James (Dec 30, 1984)
Serena Williams (Sep 26 1981)
Sam Altman (Apr 22, 1985)
Lil Wayne (Sep 27, 1982)
Elizabeth Holmes (Feb 3, 1984)
Tom Brady (Aug 3, 1977)
Emmanuel Macron (Dec 21, 1977)
Venus Williams (Jun 17, 1980)
Roger Federer (Aug 8, 1981)
Will Smith (Sep 25, 1968)
Jeff Bezos (Jan 12, 1964)
Shou Chew (Jan 1, 1983)
Britney Spears (Dec 2, 1981)
Neil Gorsuch (Aug 29, 1967)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Nov 11, 1974)
Ron Desantis (Sep 14, 1978)
Ryan Reynolds (Oct 23, 1976)
Ketanji Brown Jackson (Sep 14, 1970)
Kamala Harris (Oct 20, 1964)
Christopher Nolan (Jul 30, 1970)
Hakeem Jeffries (Aug 4, 1970)
Satya Nadella (Aug 19, 1967)
Gavin Newsom (Oct 10, 1967)
Nikki Haley (Jan 20, 1972)
Tiger Woods (Dec 30, 1975)
Larry Page (Mar 26, 1973)
Michelle Obama (Jan 17, 1964)
Amy Coney Barrett (Jan 28, 1972)
Brad Pitt (Dec 18, 1963)
Jennifer Lopez (Jul 24, 1969)
Oprah Winfrey (Jan 29, 1954)
Jensen Huang (Feb 17, 1963)
Brett Kavanaugh (Feb 12, 1965)
Eliezer Yudkowsky (Sep 11, 1979)
Erdogan (Feb 26, 1954)
JK Rowling (Jul 31, 1965)
Chuck Norris (Mar 10, 1940)
Elena Kagan (Apr 28, 1960)
Mike Pence (Jun 7, 1959)
Wayne Gretzsky (Jan 26, 1961)
Mary Barra (Dec 24, 1961)
John G. Roberts (Jan 27, 1955)
Barack Obama (Aug 4, 1961)
Snoop Dogg (Oct 20, 1971)
Xi Jinping (Jun 15, 1953)
Clarence Thomas (Jun 23, 1948)
Sonia Sotomayor (Jun 25, 1954)
Samuel Alito (Apr 1, 1950)
Elon Musk (Jun 28, 1971)
Geoffrey Hinton (Dec 6, 1947)
Kim Jong Un (Jan 8, 1984)
Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)
Bernard Arnault (Mar 5, 1949)
Mohammed Bin Salman (Aug 31, 1985)
George W Bush (Jul 6, 1946)
Benjamin Netanyahu (Oct 21, 1949)
Volodymyr Zelensky (Jan 25, 1978)
Ted Cruz (Dec 22, 1970)
Hillary Clinton (Oct 26, 1947)
Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)
Stephen King (Sep 21, 1947)
Steven Spielberg (Dec 18, 1946)
Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)
Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)
Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)
Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)
Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)
Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)
Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)
Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)
Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)
Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)
Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)
Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)
Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)
King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)
Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)
Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)
Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)
Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)
Jimmy Carter (Oct 1, 1924)
Yahya Sinwar (Oct 29 1962)
Bernie Madoff
James Earl Jones (Jan 17, 1931)
93
91
89
85
84
83
82
76
75
74
74
72
71
70
67
66
65
65
65
63
62
60
60
58
58
58
58
55
53
53
52
51
51
51
50
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
48
47
43
43
42
40
36
34
34
34
34
34
33
33
33
33
31
30
30
27
26
26
26
26
26
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
23
23
22
22
21
20
20
19
17
17
14
13
13
12
10
10
8
8
7
6
6
5
5
3
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Christopher Luxon
David Seymour
Chlöe Swarbrick
Chris Hipkins
Debbie Ngarewa-Packer
Winston Peters
Rawiri Waititi
Marama Davidson
James Shaw
92
92
92
83
82
80
79
57
1
OptionProbability
Other
Terrence Tao
@jim
Andrej Karpathy
Marilyn vos Savant
Christopher Langan
Elon Musk
Grigori Perelman
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Donald Trump
Noam Chomsky
Brian T. Edwards
Xi Jingping
Satoshi Nakamoto
48
20
12
4
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump
John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
James Comey – Former FBI Director
James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN
John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI
Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama
Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden
Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States
Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama
Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden
Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump
Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump
Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella
John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama
Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm
Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel
Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein
Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump
Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama
Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden
Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden
Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding
James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter
Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations
Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump
Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States
Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump
Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division
Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm
Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein
Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller
Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General
Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump
Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office
Joe Biden – President of the United States
Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows
Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI
Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London
Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions
Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump
Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm
Curtis Heide – FBI Agent
Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration
Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama
Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump
Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command
Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump
Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection
Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare
Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General
Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development
Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division
Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm
Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"
Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump
Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS
Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump
100
100
100
79
76
68
68
68
66
66
66
57
56
56
51
49
49
48
47
46
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
37
37
36
35
35
34
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
27
27
24
OptionProbability
Other
David Tennant (Again)
Matt Smith (Again)
Peter Capaldi (Again)
Lydia West
Olly Alexander
Michael Sheen
Omari Douglas
Lenny Henry
Michaela Coel
T'Nia Miller
Hugh Grant
Ben Daniels
Bernard Cribbins
Bill Nighy
Christopher Eccleston (Again)
Josh O'Connor
Jack Lowden
Lashana Lynch
Danny Dyer
Idris Elba
Toby Jones
Diane Morgan
Joanna Lumley
Richard Hearne
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Billie Piper
51
5
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Stuart Robert
Sam Dastyari
Christopher Pyne
68
25
10
OptionProbability
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chris Buescher OUT FINISH Ty Gibbs?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Ryan Preece OUT FINISH Christopher Bell?
03/01 (Austin) - Will Shane van Gisbergen OUT FINISH A. J. Allmendinger?
02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?
02/08 (Las Vegas) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?
03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?
03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH William Byron?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Joey Logano?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Ross Chastain OUT FINISH Austin Cindric?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Austin Cindric?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Noah Gragson OUT FINISH Austin Dillon?
02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Joey Logano?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH William Byron?
02/08 (Las Vegas) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH Tyler Reddick?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will William Byron OUT FINISH Ryan Blaney?
02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH Ryan Blaney?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Chris Buescher?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Ty Gibbs?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Austin Dillon?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Bubba Wallace OUT FINISH Ross Chastain?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Austin Cindric OUT FINISH Ross Chastain?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH William Byron?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Ty Gibbs OUT FINISH Chase Briscoe?
02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Christopher Bell OUT FINISH Denny Hamlin?
100
100
100
72
62
59
59
52
50
50
50
50
46
44
44
44
43
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0