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Prediction markets for Cláudia Campo

Will OpenAI cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:20 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

3.91%chance

304181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2740

899

Who will be the President of Brazil at some point in their life?

Mar 28, 12:38 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM

143327

OptionProbability

Tarcísio de Freitas

Fernando Haddad

Geraldo Alckmin

João Campos

Renato Freitas

Simone Tebet

Eduardo Bolsonaro

Romeu Zema

Rodrigo Pacheco

Janja Lula da Silva

Gusttavo Lima

Flávio Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

André Janones

Ciro Gomes

Guilherme Boulos

Flávio Dino

Soraya Thronicke

João Doria

Tabata Amaral

Eduardo Leite

Sergio Moro

Nikolas Ferreira

Pablo Marçal

Arthur Lira

Kim Kataguiri

29

28

20

20

11

10

10

9

9

9

9

8

8

7

6

6

6

6

6

5

5

5

5

4

3

2

Will Google DeepMind cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:21 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

3.84%chance

323198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2698

978

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

142972

OptionProbability

Will Sawin

Other

Alex Smith

Ewain Gwynne

Amol Aggarwal

Jeremy Hahn

Dor Minzer

Hong Wang

Marcelo Campos

Mehtaab Sawhney

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

25

23

19

17

5

4

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

Will WW3 have begun by 2028?

Jan 14, 3:53 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

14.31%chance

482643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

839

Will Inflection.ai cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:23 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

3%chance

112103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1422

948

Will Roberto Campos Neto be elected president of Brazil or be the runner-up during the next presidential election?

Feb 12, 4:10 PMFeb 13, 2:59 AM

1.19%chance

91696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1800

108

Will Anthropic cause human extinction in the next 5 years?

Jul 9, 11:22 AMJul 9, 9:59 PM

4.79%chance

18699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1446

941

Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?

Apr 22, 11:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.15%chance

14601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1057

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