Combs News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

Approval < 35%

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Fair elections in 2028

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

trump gets hospitalized

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Vances have another kid

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

USA experiences a recession.

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

Trump visits Africa

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

10% fewer government agencies

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump and Obama shake hands

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Dow rises above 65,000

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Trump says a racial slur

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

US national bitcoin reserve created

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Tesla

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

Joe Biden dies

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

New national park created

BTC falls below $38,000

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

War is declared against another nation

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

The department of education gets desolved

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Repeal obamacare

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

JD Vance elected President

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

Another pandemic

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

Trump runs for a third term

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

NATO invokes Article 5

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Trump gets shot

Approval < 25%

Trump announces he is tired of winning

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump dies

Trump loses the fake tan

Anthony Fauci is indicted

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

55 or more Republican senate seats

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Record level unemployment

54 or more Republican senate seats

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

south park is canceled/discontinued

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

Trump is assassinated

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump extends his term past 4 years

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

A national ban on gender-affirming care

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Starship lands on Mars

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

"covfefe" posted again

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump and Melania divorce

Ann Selzer arrested

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Bond will be a man

Gunplay

Bond drives a car

Bond wears a suit/tuxedo

On screen fatalities

London will appear on screen

Car chase scene

Urban scene

Bond tells ≥1 joke

Blue-eyed Bond

Bond introduces himself as "Bond, James Bond"

World capital other than London appears on screen

A vessel is shown on screen containing any of the following: ketchup, mustard, wasabi, soy sauce, hot sauce, beer, wine, whiskey, cologne, or sulfuric acid.

A named character speaks in a language other than English

Bond will attend a gala, soirée, ball, banquet, masquerade, black-tie event, cocktail party, fundraiser, awards ceremony, premiere, reception, or a charity auction.

Runtime of at least 2 hours/120 minutes.

Bond drinks a martini

Female and/or BIPOC director and/or producer

Opening action sequence

The Tower of London, Big Ben, Buckingham Palace, Wembley, or Heathrow appears on screen.

Gun Barrel Sequence

Sex scene

Q appears

Bond solves ≥ 1 problem non-violently

Hacking electronics of some form

Bond uses explosives

The plot will be predominantly set in present day

Bond disarms someone with a melee weapon using martial arts

The main theme song will be sung by a female

The film features a scene at a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

Fatal-if-missed aerial jump

A Bird (Avian) Will Appear Onscreen for >2 Seconds

Bond will shoot an inanimate object on purpose.

Asia will appear on screen

It will gross more worldwide than No Time to Die ($774M)

Someone goes through a pane of glass

A named character is a double (or triple, etc.) agent

"King" or "Queen" of England mentioned

Bond is on vacation (is shown somewhere for enjoyment, without purpose for his mission)

Someone in the movie says the title

@HenriThunberg enjoys the film

It will feature ≥1 actor that was part of No Time to Die

The villain will use or work in the field of artificial intelligence.

>= 7.0 IMDB rating 1 year after release

The villain is played by an actor who had a lead or recurring role on a prestigious television series that aired on either AMC or HBO.

Actor who plays Bond at least 6' (183 cm) tall

South America, Africa, or Australia will appear on screen

The words "James Bond will return" appear on screen during or after the credits.

Bond rides a motorcycle

>=85 on Tomatometer 1 month after US release

Critics will say it's a return to classic bond

A sniper rifle is fired

At least a portion filmed in Canada

There will be a scene with wagering, gambling or betting

Bond wields a Walther PPK

Interracial sex scene

Pegasus, Phoenix, Griffin, Unicorn, Kraken, Minotaur, Medusa, Cyclops, Sphinx, Kitsune, Chimera, or Thunderbird (any visual representation)

Jungle / forest scene

Bond flys an aircraft

James Bond disobeys orders from MI6 or the British government

Bond attends a soccer match, cricket game, rugby match, boxing/MMA fight, tennis match, e-sport event, the Olympics, a carnival or fair, the opera, or a horse race.

Casino game scene

Bond parachutes

It passes the Bechdel test (two named women talk the each other about anything besides a man)

Bond wears shorts

Bond pays for something by leaving money on a table and walking off without the recipient of the money present

>=7.5 on IMDB 1 month after US release

Arctic scene

Someone uses a euphemism to order a killing

Bond gets slapped

M will be played by Ralph Fiennes

Prison/jail scene

Black market trafficking

A single large explosion occurs on screen at the same time as Bond, and he doesn't look at it

Someone climbs around on the outside of a building

Released in 2028

Skydiving

The main character will order a “Vodka Martini, shaken, not stirred” using that exact phrase.

A Gulf kingdom will appear on screen (e.g. Dubai)

Bond licks something

Bond and a pond shown on screen together

someone combs or brushes their hair (or the hair of another person)

Bond in bondage (not necessarily sexual)

Bond slaps someone

A scene shows James Bond naked

Bond puts something phallic-shaped in his mouth

Bond is violent toward a woman (e.g. painful pulling, slap, throat grip...)

Someone speaks a verbal password phrase to verify their identity, gain access to a location, etc.

There will be a voiced character that is an AI

Bond rides a bicycle

Torture

James Bond talks to a woman while playing a card game.

Bond receives a gunshot wound

A visible countdown clock, which if it reaches zero something bad happens

Wilhelm scream

Main villain has a visible physical defect (scar, handicap, missing limb, ...)

The title will refer to life and/or death

@brunoparga correctly guesses a pun beforehand

Bond plays craps, roulette, or blackjack

Bond drives a boat

A jet ski or snowmobile gets airborne

Someone is shot with a tranquilizer dart or other nonlethal incapacitating projectile (getting wounded with a potentially lethal weapon doesn't count)

James Bond plays poker

Bond commits arson

Oral sex

Bond smokes a cigarette/cigar

Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Zendaya appear on screen

Martini and a bikini shown on screen at the same time

Bond has facial hair

Terrorists

US premier date is moved forward at least once (has to be numbered date, "summer 2026" doesn't count)

Someone carries a gun disassembled in a nondescript case

A safe is cracked (any means possible)

Actor who plays Bond is a US citizen

Rolex, Aston Martin, Bollinger Champaign product placements (all three)

Desert scene

The ending pitches a next movie (continued story, introduction of villain, venegance, ...)

A pandemic or biological warfare will be a central plot

Ski chase scene

Drug use

Someone/something is x-rayed

Thunderstorm

Dessert scene

An actor who previous played a Bond villain appears (as either a new or recurring character)

President of the United States is mentioned

IF the main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot, this pet is a horse...

Robots

Bond throws food, darts, or a Molotov cocktail

Death of a Bond love interest

It refers to the transition between two British monarchs (Elizabeth, Charles and/or others)

Bond will have a hot, young, American sidekick

Theme song will be performed by a band (more than one artist. Duran Duran did it, so there is precedent.)

There will be a promotional event in Fortnite

Bond wears a mask

Sharks

Cocaine or caviar appears on screen

Bond will be in a submarine

James Bond plays baccarat

Scene with Bond wearing a hat and sunglasses

Cryptocurrency is referenced

Bond complains about the quality of an alcoholic beverage

Bond plays golf, tennis, or croquet

Bond is LQBTQ+

Bond rides an animal

James games (Bond plays any video game, table top board game, or role-playing game) *chess counts, casino games don't

Main villain speaks Russian on screen

Bond has a disability

Nazis (neo- counts)

Bond claims to have retired / quit from the world of espionage

Mexico is shown on screen

Jetpack

The movie will be set during the Cold War (1947-1991)

An EMP device plays a central role.

Climate change/global warming is explicitly mentioned

At least one named character below 18 years old

Orgy

Canada is shown on screen

Will feature something that can turn invisible

A hamburger appears on screen

Moscow, Kyiv, or Paris shown on screen

Underwater combat

Bond goes to space

The word "fuck" is said more than once.

With all this speculation about which kinds of sex acts will be shown, I'm surprised nobody has said it yet, so I'll say it: 𝕓𝕠𝕟𝕕𝕒𝕘𝕖

Bond beds a "lady of the night" (ie. He fucks a prostitute)

Bond is blond

Features a shot with someone lowering a newspaper, magazine or book, revealing they had been surreptitiously spying on someone

Someone sees something incredible, and implicitly ascribes it to alcohol (traditionally, by looking at the bottle)

Theme song is performed by Taylor Swift

A previous Bond actor appears (as either a new or recurring character)

Assplay

Trans character - explicity stated they are trans, no ambiguity (must be on screen for min. 7 seconds and say at least 3 words)

Bond plays Russian roulette

Bond uses a VR headset

Bond has a neck tattoo

Aaron Taylor-Johnson plays Bond

The main villain has a pet that plays a significant role in the plot.

Revealed that "James Bond" has always been a code name.

fight featuring at least one of: viper, mongoose, someone with one of those as their code name

A pinball machine will appear.

Gay sex scene

Pirates

Party and play (PnP), also known as chemsex, scene

Emilia Clarke portrays a character

A character has the codename "Fat Rascal"

Someone asks for payment in "small, unmarked bills" or "negotiable bearer bonds" (wording need not be exact)

Theme song is performed by The Weeknd

San Francisco is shown on screen

Pegging

Another character coincidentally has the first name "James" or surname "Bond" (or both)

Horse cock on screen (flaccid)

Someone uses the word "clip" to refer to a magazine

Satanism

Bond consumes more than 1.5 loads of jizz

A clocks shows the time 4:20

It will be described as featuring AI, such as claims that is uses “AI actors”, as reported by entertainment media.

Feature Nightcore music

Supernatural entities

There will be a character codenamed "Fat Rascal" and they will be played by an American

ChatGPT is referenced by any character

Bond uses chopsticks

Released in 2026

Nuclear explosion

Desert dessert scene (e.g. eating an ice cream in the Sahara)

Any character says the word "anime"

Bond has a mustache (no other facial hair)

Vampires

Bond vapes

Bond won't be Caucasian

The main character will order a “café mocha, double double” using that exact phrase.

Bond dies

Scat play

Bond does depraved sexual acts for money (e.g., bukakke, public gang bangs, period play, etc.)

Contains a joke or indirect reference to the "last night I Bond Burgered your sister" meme

Horse cock on screen (erect)

Prediction markets, origami, or the word "manifold" appear in the movie.

Bond will say the line about snakes on a plane, but only as a metaphor (with snakes representing penises and the plane being his ass).

The handkerchief code is a major plot element

James Bond will say, "I'm rational, rationalussy."

Bond is vegan

The fourth wall is broken

It will be directed by a woman

Bond plays League of Legends

Destiny appears on screen

Bond says, “Enough is enough! I have had it with these motherfucking snakes on this motherfucking plane!”

Dragons

Dinosaurs

It will be directed by Christopher Nolan

Other

$100-110B

$90-100B

$140-150B

$110-120B

$80-90B

$120-130B

$130-140B

$70-80B

$60-70B

$40-50B

$50-60B

After Jan. 1 2027

In 2026

Before the end of 2024

Between Jan. 1 2025 and June 30 2025

YES

YES

Hunter Biden

Enrique Tarrio

Joe Biggs

Stewart Rhodes

Kelly Meggs

Ethan Nordean

Dominic Pezzola

George Santos

Donald Trump

Sean 'Diddy' Combs

Ghislane Maxwell

Chelsea Manning

Edward Snowden

Joe Exotic

Tay-K

Sam Bankman-Fried

Derek Chauvin

Julian Assange

Levi Finkelstein

Elizabeth Holmes

R. Kelly

@Mira

Harvey Weinstein

Mariah Carey

Taylor Swift

Drake

The Weeknd

Ed Sheeran

Post Malone

Jung Kook

Billie Eilish

Dua Lipa

Olivia Rodrigo

Miley Cyrus

Ariana Grande

Beyonce

SZA

Zach Bryan

Meghan Trainor

Nicki Minaj

Cardi B

Noah Kahan

Ice Spice

Morgan Wallen

Luke Combs

Sam Smith

21 Savage

Metro Boomin

Harry Styles

Bailey Zimmerman

Toosii

Lil Durk

Lil Uzi Vert

Eslabon Armado

Peso Pluma

Gunna

Coi Leray

Steve Lacy

JVKE

Grupo Frontera

Bad Bunny

Doja Cat

HARDY

Rihanna

Jason Aldean

Bobby Helms

Burl Ives

Oliver Anthony

Parker McCollum

Kane Brown

Travis Scott

Lainey Wilson

Latto

Bizarrap

Shakira

Corey Kent

Jordan Davis

Old Dominion

Future

Fuerza Regida

Kacey Musgraves

Karol G

Tyler Hubbard

Brenda Lee

Stephen Sanchez

RAYE

070 Shake

Jelly Roll

Miguel

Katelyn Brown

David Guetta

Bebe Rexha

Fifty FIfty

Lady Gaga

Kaliiii

Chris Brown

Pink Pantheress

GloRilla

Kim Petras

Yng Lvcas

Wham!

YES

YES

YES

NO