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Prediction markets for Corr

Will @1bets Successfully Complete Daily ADHD "Life-Correction" Protocol?

Jan 6, 10:24 PMFeb 10, 10:22 PM

2551253

OptionProbability

9 January 2026

11 January 2026

22 January 2026

23 January 2026

24 January 2026

25 January 2026

26 January 2026

28 January 2026

27 January 2026

10 January 2026

12 January 2026

13 January 2026

14 January 2026

15 January 2026

16 January 2026

17 January 2026

18 January 2026

19 January 2026

20 January 2026

21 January 2026

100

100

16

16

16

16

16

16

15

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

701

Is Richard Hanania correct that major institutions are anti-white and anti-male. There is Gay propaganda in schools etc.

Apr 4, 11:03 PMJul 25, 7:24 AM

24.69%chance

294632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

971

Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?

Sep 29, 12:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

41.59%chance

333969

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

735

Will the baldness cure paper be proven correct ?

Oct 27, 6:28 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

31.96%chance

71650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

685

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Oct 27, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

151633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

982

Will the company that produces the first AGI prioritize corrigibility?

Mar 12, 8:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.42%chance

271606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2256

443

Is string theory correct?

Jan 24, 2:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.1%chance

32817

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

945

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

Jul 2, 8:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.93%chance

17459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

946

If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?

Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.91%chance

17389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

862

Will prioritizing corrigible AI produce safe results?

Mar 12, 8:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.79%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

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