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Prediction markets for Corr

Will Allan Lichtman (creator of the 13 Keys) correctly predict the 2028 election?

Oct 14, 12:17 AMDec 1, 7:59 AM

67.06%chance

177310

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

701

Will a correct solution to a Millennium Prize Problem be published by the end of 2030?

Sep 29, 12:01 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

94.05%chance

446943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3024

88

Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct?

May 28, 9:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.73%chance

362918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1388

848

Will the baldness cure paper be proven correct ?

Oct 27, 6:28 AMOct 31, 11:59 PM

31.96%chance

71650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

685

In the Crisis in Cosmology, the CMBR answer is closer to correct than the supernovae results

Oct 27, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

151633

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1045

982

Will the company that produces the first AGI prioritize corrigibility?

Mar 12, 8:19 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.42%chance

271606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2256

443

Is string theory correct?

Jan 24, 2:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

23.68%chance

32843

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

953

If AI wipes out humanity, will it resolve applicable markets correctly?

Jul 2, 8:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.05%chance

19638

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

943

If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?

Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.91%chance

17389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

862

Will I believe the post "Cardiovascular disease is a solved problem" is broadly correct in August 2028?

Jul 11, 11:37 AMJul 31, 11:59 PM

14.1%chance

4180

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7270

7055

Will prioritizing corrigible AI produce safe results?

Mar 12, 8:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.79%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

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