OptionVotes
YES
NO
1019
982
OptionProbability
Proposal: representative security council! Add at least one member with <20k net worth
Proposal: Donate it all to MSF / Doctors without Borders
ACCEPTED: Don't use the bomb before it reaches 10K (minimum)
Proposal: add @Stralor to the security council
ACCEPTED: Donate 50% to GiveWell, 50% to Internet Archive
Donate to Mriya https://manifold.markets/ArtemAvramenko/will-the-mriya-fund-raise-2-million?r=TG9yZWxhaQ
Donate 34% to give well, 33 % to internet archive, 33% to mriya
Proposal: don't use the bomb until it reaches 20k mana kilotons
Proposal: Loan Tumbles 1000 mana to add to the bounty, then add Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Add @SanghyeonSeo to the security council
Proposal: add @Joshua as a member of the security council
Proposal: Bet it on YES for Michelle Obama winning the 2024 presidential election
Proposal: Donate it all to Givewell (PASSED AWAITING APPROVAL)
Proposal: add @odoacre to the security council
Proposal: Bet YES on the first Yes or No market posted after 1 AM EST on March 9th
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on whalebait markets
Proposal: EMERGENCY BACKUP BOMB - donate it all to internet archive in case of pivot backfire
Proposal: Loan it all to @retr0id for 1 month, at 10% monthly interest
Proposal: Bet it all on coinflip markets (51% YES) and see how many times it ~doubles
Proposal: the security council must have at least 3 members to arm the bomb
Drop a 1 kiloton "shot across the bow" spirit bomb directly on the new manifold government https://manifold.markets/bens/will-i-receive-the-mandate-of-the-p
Proposal: Boost Bomb, spend the mana boosting question(s) to be determined
Proposal: Whale Bomb: Use the bomb on a whalebait market
Proposal: a member of the security counsel can be voted off with a supermajority of its members >66%
Proposal: True Love Bomb, spread the mana by making large bets on markets with <3 traders or markets created by new users
Proposal: Create a ticking mechanism with a mana goal and a deadline, such that either: 1) the deadline is reached and the bomb is detonated, or 2) the mana goal is reached and the deadline is extended
Proposal: Give 10% to @geuber_
Proposal: add @AmmonLam to the security council
Proposal: Use it to develop a rival “Coolfold Partner Program,” award it as bounties to promising new/cool market creators
Proposal: Add @Tumbles to the security council
Proposal: Donate it all to Poker Night on Manifund
Proposal: Use the mana to buy tickets for Manifest for spirit bomb contributors who are able to make it
Proposal: Bet it on LK-99 superconductor market (YES or NO to be decided).
add @AbhinavSrinivas to the security council
Proposal: add @KongoLandwalker to the security counsil
Proposal: Cursed Boost Bomb, use it to boost the most cursed/annoying market to impact the feed of every user for days to come
Proposal: Subsidy Bomb, put the mana into one specific market, target to be determined
ACCEPTED: don't use the bomb before it reaches 5K (minimum)
ACCEPTED: require a contribution of at least 1000M for any future member to be considered for the security council
DUPLICATE - NA
ACCEPTED: security council candidates must have 20 YES positions for them to be considered
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 100% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions.
ACCEPTED: Proposals need at least 10 more Yes positions than NO positions to be considered (YES positions minus NO positions must be 10 or more)
ACCEPTED: All proposals must have at least 80% to be considered
ACCEPTED: proposals can be cancelled if there are 10 more NO positions than YES positions (they can be resubmitted though)
ACCEPTED: Proposed security council members cannot be considered without reaching 95% YES at some point after having 20 unique YES positions. (amending previous 100%)
ACCEPTED: change approval for resolutions to 95%, and a difference of 20 Y to N for sec council member proposals
Proposal: Poker bomb - use it to fund a massive prize pool for a coolfold poker event
Proposal: Max out a specific Manifund project (TBD)
Proposal: add @stefanie as a member of the security council
Proposal: Distribute among active players in Bronze
Proposal: Poll bomb - give chris enough mana to finish hogwarts/trump polls :)
Proposal: Stochastic Bomb: use it to make as many markets about Jose Luis Ricon and StochasticParrot as possible
Proposal: use the bomb to disrupt manifold politics conditional markets.
Proposal: Use the bomb to create a multiple choice market with 100 answers, and pour the rest into boosting it
Proposal: repeal the ban on using the bomb before it reaches 5K mana
Proposal: add a random number generator to the security council
Proposal: Disarm the bomb until April 2nd 2024
Proposal: Immolation Bomb to protest the pivot
Proposal: Disarmament & Peace, permanently deactivate the bomb
Proposal: Love Bomb, spread the mana from the bomb as subsidy among the top 100 markets on browse
Proposal: block another user's limit order on a specific market, target TBD (ie: set up a new large Limit Order that is slightly below/above theirs)
Proposal: Vow not to use the bomb on any small creators or their markets, without their permission (<1000 traders)
Proposal: Found a Republican PAC to make election predictions on Manifold more accurate
Proposal: Distribute it to all the users that contributed to it evenly
Proposal: the greed ending, split the bomb evenly among members of the security council
Proposal: add @firstuserhere to the security council
97
95
95
94
94
93
91
87
84
81
79
79
77
77
73
71
71
70
69
69
69
67
66
65
65
61
60
56
55
55
55
54
53
53
52
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
48
48
48
47
47
44
42
42
41
34
32
32
26
25
23
18
15
11
OptionVotes
YES
NO
9916
2845
OptionVotes
YES
NO
4575
219
OptionVotes
YES
NO
4843
715
OptionProbability
23rd (Grants the District of Columbia electors in the Electoral College.)
22nd (Limits the number of times a person can be elected president.)
11th (Makes states immune from suits from out-of-state citizens and foreigners not living within the state borders; lays the foundation for state sovereign immunity.)
26th (Prohibits the denial of the right of US citizens 18 years of age or older, to vote on account of age.)
20th (Changes dates on which terms of president and VP, and of members of Congress, begin and end, to January 20 and January 3 respectively. States that if president-elect dies before taking office, VP–elect is to be inaugurated president)
25th (Addresses succession to the presidency and establishes procedures both for filling a vacancy in the office of the vice president and responding to presidential disabilities.)
27th (Delays laws affecting Congressional salary from taking effect until after the next election of representatives.)
5th (Sets out rules for indictment by grand jury and eminent domain, protects the right to due process, and prohibits self-incrimination and double jeopardy.)
6th (Protects the right to a speedy public trial by jury, to notification of criminal accusations, to confront the accuser, to obtain witnesses and to retain counsel.)
12th (Revises presidential election procedures by having the president and vice president elected together as opposed to the vice president being the runner up in the presidential election.)
3rd (Restricts the quartering of soldiers in private homes.)
15th (Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on race, color or previous condition of servitude.)
24th (Prohibits the revocation of voting rights due to the non-payment of a poll tax or any other tax.)
1st (Protects freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, freedom of assembly and the right to petition the government.)
4th (Prohibits unreasonable searches and seizures and sets out requirements for search warrants based on probable cause.)
7th (Provides for the right to a jury trial in civil lawsuits.)
8th (Prohibits excessive fines and excessive bail, as well as cruel and unusual punishment.)
9th (States that rights not enumerated in the Constitution are retained by the people.)
10th (States that the federal government possesses only those powers delegated, or enumerated, to it through the Constitution, and that all other powers are reserved to the States, or to the people.)
13th (Abolishes slavery and involuntary servitude, except as punishment for a crime.)
17th (Establishes the direct election of United States senators by popular vote.)
21st (Repeals the 18th Amendment and makes it a federal offense to transport or import intoxicating liquors into U.S. states and territories where such is prohibited by law.)
2nd (Protects the right to keep and bear arms.)
14th (Defines citizenship, contains the Privileges or Immunities Clause, the Due Process Clause, and the Equal Protection Clause, and deals with post–Civil War issues.)
16th (Permits Congress to levy an income tax without apportioning it among the various states or basing it on the United States Census.)
19th (Prohibits the denial of the right to vote based on sex.)
26
21
19
19
18
18
18
17
17
17
15
13
12
6
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
2
1
1
OptionProbability
John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
James Comey – Former FBI Director
James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN
John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI
Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama
Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden
Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States
Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama
Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden
Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump
Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella
John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama
Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC
Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm
Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel
Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein
Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development
Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump
Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama
Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden
Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm
Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump
Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump
Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm
Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden
Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding
James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter
Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations
Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump
Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions
Curtis Heide – FBI Agent
Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama
Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States
Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump
Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division
Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm
Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"
Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein
Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller
Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General
Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump
Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office
Joe Biden – President of the United States
Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows
Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General
Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI
Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump
John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump
Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London
Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump
Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump
Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration
Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump
Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command
Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection
Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare
Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division
Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS
100
100
80
76
68
68
68
66
66
66
56
56
51
49
49
48
48
47
46
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
39
37
37
36
35
35
34
33
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
27
OptionProbability
Registered nurses
Plumbing, electrical, and carpentry work [47-3000]
Athletes and sports competitors
Health specialties teachers, postsecondary
Clinical and counseling psychologists
Doctors
Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers
Electricians
Dentists, general
Computer programmers
Data Scientist
Video producer
Software developers
Physical Therapists
Teachers
Priest/Imam/Spiritual guide
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers
Real estate sales agents
88
86
76
76
75
73
69
63
62
56
56
52
51
50
48
46
40
34
OptionProbability
Juror names are not public record
Court TV offers "Gavel-to-Gavel coverage"
Law & Crime offers "Gavel-to-Gavel coverage"
Trial doesn't start until 2026
Trial is televised
The defense calls fewer witnesses than the prosecution
A motion for recusal is made
Jury is sequestered just during deliberations
Alternate juror is seated as a member of the Jury
Jury sequestered for entire trial
Defense counsel sanctioned
Luigi Mangione changes counsel during trial
Brady evidence is withheld
DA sanctioned
Defendant held in contempt
The case will be heard as a bench trial
69
59
57
55
52
52
50
50
48
48
45
43
41
34
30
25
OptionProbability
Juror names are not public record
The defense calls fewer witnesses than the prosecution
Jury sequestered for entire trial
Luigi Mangione changes counsel during trial
Court TV offers "Gavel-to-Gavel coverage"
Law & Crime offers "Gavel-to-Gavel coverage"
Alternate juror is seated as a member of the Jury
Trial doesn't start until 2026
The case will be heard as a bench trial
Brady evidence is withheld
AUSA sanctioned
Defense counsel sanctioned
A motion for recusal is made
Trial is televised
Defendant held in contempt
Jury is sequestered just during deliberations
90
83
72
51
50
50
35
31
31
31
31
31
25
20
20
18
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1043
958
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1000
1000