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Cowen News

Will May 2024 be remembered as the month 'AI safety movement died' as per Tyler Cowen?

May 21, 12:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

4%chance

6411797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4902

204

Scott Alexander & Tyler Cowen podcast in 2025?

Jun 2, 4:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.65%chance

258161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4086

245

Who will be on the Complex Systems podcast in 2025?

Jan 3, 9:08 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

136818

OptionProbability

Oliver Habryka

Rob Walling

Will Wright

Andy Matuschak

Byrne Hobart

Dylan Matthews

Matt Levine

Tyler Cowen

Blake Scholl

Daniel Abraham

Bruce Schneier

Tarek Mansour

Chris Dixon

Ben Thompson

Jennifer Pahlka

Dirk Didascalou

Paul Graham

Tim Urban

Dwarkesh Patel

Nate Soares

John Carmack

Naval Ravikant

Patrick Collison

John Collison

Balaji Srinivasan

Gwern Branwen

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Vitalik Buterin

Dominic Cummings

Scott Alexander

100

18

18

18

18

18

17

17

16

14

14

14

14

14

13

12

12

12

12

11

10

10

10

10

8

8

8

7

7

5

Will we know who Satoshi Nakamoto is within two years of Tyler Cowen’s prediction?

Oct 23, 11:37 PMOct 24, 10:59 PM

16.82%chance

192038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2224

450

When will Tyler Cowen have David Grusch as the guest on an episode of Conversations with Tyler?

Nov 29, 3:17 PMDec 6, 3:59 PM

61519

OptionProbability

Other

1Q 2025

2Q 2025

4Q 2024

3Q 2023

1Q 2024

2Q 2024

3Q 2024

34

25

22

15

1

1

1

1

Tyler Cowen's claims about reading and travel continue to be accepted through mid 2028

Dec 18, 4:41 PMJul 1, 5:59 AM

97.57%chance

20950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

909

49

Will Tyler Cowen create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.11%chance

15650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1403

844

Tyler Cowen thinks Claude 3 meets some definitions of AGI. Five years from now, will Claude be considered an early AGI?

Mar 7, 12:54 PMMar 8, 4:59 AM

8.28%chance

10635

OptionVotes

YES

NO

731

160

Will Tyler Cowen win a Nobel prize?

Oct 5, 6:36 PMDec 31, 7:32 PM

8.65%chance

4225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

325

31

Will Tyler Cowen get diagnosed with plasticosis by EOY2039?

Sep 21, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

1200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Does the shortest possible universal program contain Tyler Cowen in it?

Sep 18, 7:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65%chance

221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

76

Will Tyler Cowen vote REPUBLICAN in the 2028 presidential election?

Nov 11, 1:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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