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Prediction markets for Crater

WHERE will Starship first land on Mars?

Jan 19, 3:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85188

OptionProbability

< 50° latitude

Arcadia Planitia

Valles Marineris

Below -2 km elevation

Southern Hemisphere

Northern Hemisphere

Below -3.5 km elevation

< 30° latitude

Erebus Montes

Phlegra Montes

Schiaparelli Crater

Jezero Crater

Utopia Planitia

Hellas Planitia

Gale Crater

Tharsis Plateau

Never successfully lands on Mars

75

66

60

57

50

49

43

43

35

34

34

31

31

31

31

31

27

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1527

849

Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030?

Apr 23, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16%chance

181035

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1714

791

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

Will a large impact crater be discovered by 2029?

Dec 10, 11:14 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

7%chance

8448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

497

82

Will another spacecraft successfully land on the Moon in 2026?

Sep 9, 9:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.31%chance

12428

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332

30

Will Roden Crater be completed in James Turrell's lifetime?

May 8, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.56%chance

4330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332

38

Will Earth have a new impact crater of at least 100 m caused by a meteor by 2033?

Dec 18, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.46%chance

13266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

957

Will the Darvaza Gas Crater in Turkmenistan stop burning before 2029?

Apr 28, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.4%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

What will be the latitude of the first Artemis lunar landing?

Apr 21, 3:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

120

OptionProbability

85° S

89° S

88° S

87° S

86° S

84° S

83° S

82° S

81° S

80° S

Other

31

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

7

Will Griffin-1 successfully land on the moon?

Jun 16, 2:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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