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Prediction markets for Crater

WHERE will Starship first land on Mars?

Jan 19, 3:15 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85188

OptionProbability

< 50° latitude

Arcadia Planitia

Valles Marineris

Below -2 km elevation

Southern Hemisphere

Northern Hemisphere

Below -3.5 km elevation

< 30° latitude

Erebus Montes

Phlegra Montes

Schiaparelli Crater

Jezero Crater

Utopia Planitia

Hellas Planitia

Gale Crater

Tharsis Plateau

Never successfully lands on Mars

75

66

60

57

50

49

43

43

35

34

34

31

31

31

31

31

27

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1527

849

Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030?

Apr 23, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

16735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

856

Will humanity start building a Lunar Crater Radio Telescope before 2040?

Sep 3, 11:27 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.22%chance

17626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

962

Will Roden Crater be completed in James Turrell's lifetime?

May 8, 10:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.56%chance

4330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332

38

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

Any of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027

Sep 11, 4:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

63.06%chance

8279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

103

Will Earth have a new impact crater of at least 100 m caused by a meteor by 2033?

Dec 18, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.46%chance

13266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1226

957

Which month will Blue Moon Mk 1 successfully land on the Moon?

Jan 19, 3:09 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

6217

OptionProbability

November 2026

Other

October 2026

August 2026

July 2026

September 2026

June 2026

May 2026

March 2026

April 2026

20

20

13

12

10

10

7

4

2

2

Will a major asteroid impact the Earth before the end of 2050?

Apr 22, 8:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

18.28%chance

795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

225

92

Will a large impact crater be discovered by 2029?

Dec 10, 11:14 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

31.43%chance

774

OptionVotes

NO

YES

145

144

Will the Darvaza Gas Crater in Turkmenistan stop burning before 2029?

Apr 28, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.4%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

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