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People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
OptionProbability
Other
Elon Musk
Bill Gates
Jeff Bezos
Robert Caro
Mr. Beast
Barack Obama
Donald Trump
Kamala Harris
JD Vance
Terence Tao
Sarah Paine
Sam Altman
Narendra Modi
Gwern Branwen
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
roon
Geoffrey Hinton
Ilya Sutskever
Jensen Huang
Peter Thiel
No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific
Tim Cook
Satya Nadella
Justin Trudeau
Brian Shaw (_biggest_ guest yet?)
Xi Jinping
Dalai Lama
Buffett
Taylor Swift
Joe Biden
Lebron James
GPT-5
Bill Clinton
A basketball player
Vladimir Putin
Benjamin Netanyahu
Jesus Christ
Rona Wang
Jose Luis ricon
Kettner Griswold
James Koppel
Sam Bankman-Fried
Nancy Pelosi
Rishi Sunak
Keir Starmer
Satoshi Nakomoto
Jimmy Carter
George W Bush
Al Gore
Michael Jackson
your mom
Mitt Romney
one or both of his parents
A new OpenAI AI model not called "GPT-5"
Connor Duffy
MBS
pope Francis
Scott Alexander
The Mountain (Icelandic strongman)
Leonardo DiCaprio
RFK Jr
Sydney Sweeney
growing_daniel
greg16676935420
Deadpool
Shaq
Oprah Winfrey
Yoshua Bengio
Sundar Pichai
Scarlett Johansson
Paul McCartney
[duplicate]
Neel Nanda
King Charles
Kim Jong Un
Gavin Newsom
Royal Palace
[cancelled option]
Daniel Yergin
Peter Singer
Gabe Newell
Neil Gorsuch
Stephen Breyer
Dmitry Medvedev
JK Rowling
Shrek
Sam Hyde
[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI
Marques Brownlee
Vivek Ramaswamy
Donald Trump Jr.
Ben Shindel
Javier Milei
Dylan Patel
Joe Rogan
Marc Andreessen
Mike Tyson
Jake Paul
Matt Gaetz
21
13
12
11
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Hong Wang
Jacob Tsimerman
Jack Thorne
John Pardon
Other
Will Sawin
Maria Colombo
Yu Deng
Julian Sahasrabudhe
Sam Raskin
Vesselin Dimitrov
Yibo Gao
Tasuki Kinjo
Junliang Shen
Javier Fresan
Maksym Radziwill
Karim Adiprasito
Song Sun
Tatenda Kubalalika
Elia Bruè
Aleksandr Logunov
Amol Aggarwal
Akhil Mathew
Ashwin Sah
Alexander Efimov
Simion Filip
Jeremy Hahn
Lisa Sauermann
Dennis Gaitsgory
(duplicate, will resolve no)
Xian-Jin Li
Mike Wolf
Joseph Palmer
A non-human (e.g. an LLM)
Jacob Braunschweig
Miguel Walsh
Igor Rodnianski
Hannah Larson
Justin Fields
Frederick Manners
Yuansi Chen
Tom Hutchcroft
yunqing tang
Noé Cruchet
Vincent Tassion
Tony Yu
David Budden
Ziyang Gao
Raphaël Beuzart-Plessis
Daniel Restrepo
Matteo Verni
23
21
16
9
8
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Increase water by 50 g
it needs more salt
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Do a second rise
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Add garlic
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
put ketchup and cheese on it
Use Iodized salt
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
Add slurs to it
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Make banana bread
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.
Make the bread taste good
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Bake for 15 more minutes
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Taste the bread
throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Use a convection oven/setting
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Brush on an egg wash
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Make the bread great again
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Strawberry jelly filling
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Add caffeine to the bread
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use lemonade instead of water.
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
89
86
86
85
80
78
78
75
73
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72
69
67
66
66
65
63
62
61
60
59
59
57
56
55
54
51
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
48
48
47
45
44
43
43
43
42
41
41
40
39
37
35
34
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34
34
34
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34
33
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33
33
31
31
29
28
28
27
27
26
26
26
25
22
21
21
20
19
19
18
18
18
17
16
15
15
14
14
14
13
13
11
10
10
10
10
10
9
9
8
8
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms
MSF / Doctors without Borders
Donald Trump
Yulia Navalnaya
International Court of Justice
Narges Mohammadi
Minnesota (or the People of Minnesota)
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Greta Thunberg
duplicate - international Court of Justice
UNESCO
Philippe Lazzarini
Joe Biden
UNRWA
Alexei Navalny
Kyaw Moe Tun
José Andrés
World Uyghur Congress
Maria Corina Machado
Eliezer Yudkowsky
OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights
Timnit Gebru
Elon Musk
NATO
Netanyahu
JD Vance
AOC
Antonio Guterres
Julian Assange
David Attenborough
Pope Francis
Ursula von der Leyen
Keir Starmer
European Union
Ilham Tohti
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Jacinda Ardern
Raoni Metuktire
José Andrés
Loujain al-Hathloul
Ilwad Elman
Wa Lone
Narendra Modi
Yvonne Ridley
Hajer Sharief
Alexis Tsipras
Isaias Afwerki
Nathan Law
Agnes Chow
Filippo Grandi
Yuan Longping
Mahbouba Seraj
Victoria Tauli-Corpuz
Juan Carlos Jintiach
Joshua Wong
Ernest Moniz
DOGE
Kamala Harris
Noam Chomsky
International Fact-Checking Network
Manifold Markets
Justin Trudeau
Vladimir Putin
Aleksandr Lukashenko
Sam Altman
Bill Gates / Gates Foundation
Kim Jong Un
Abdullah Öcalan
Daniel Sheehan
Robert Kennedy Jr
@Krantz
Gustavo Petro
The Iranian protesters
Peacekeepers
Jimmy Lai
Francesca Albanese
Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue
64
12
4
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Other
Geoffrey Hinton
Ilya Sutskever
Noam Shazeer
Alan Turing
Daniel Hillis
Alec Radford
Ben Goertzle
Andrej Karpathy
Yann LeCun
Demis Hassabis
Paul Christiano
Charles Babbage
Yoshua Bengio
Jürgen Schmidhuber
John Schulman
Noam Brown
Liang Wenfeng
Alex Krizhevsky
Donald Knuth
George Boole
Kaiming He
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Marvin Minsky
Judea Pearl
Raymond Solomonoff
Andrew Ng
Fei-Fei Li
Dario Amodei
David Silver
@jim
23
18
11
8
5
5
4
4
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Jaxson Dart - Giants
Malik Willis - Dolphins
Fernando Mendoza - Raiders
Tyler Shough - Saints
Kyler Murray - Vikings
Tua Tagovailoa - Falcons
Geno Smith - Jets
Shedeur Sanders - Browns
Justin Fields - Chiefs
Ty Simpson - Steelers
Tyrod Taylor - Jets
Trinidad Chambliss - Steelers
David Mills - Texans
Dillion Gabriel - Browns
Deshaun Watson - Browns
Kirk Cousins - Falcons
Brady Cook - Jets
Kirk Cousins - Vikings
Ty Simpson - Browns
Trinidad Chambliss - Browns
Daniel Jones - Vikings
Mac Jones - Vikings
Trinidad Chambliss - Jets
Ty Simpson - Jets
Malik Willis - Steelers
Malik Willis - Jets
Malik Willis - Browns
Malik Willis - Vikings
Gardner Minshew - Chiefs
93
93
91
91
91
85
82
63
33
22
21
16
15
11
10
9
9
7
6
6
5
5
4
2
2
2
2
2
1
OptionProbability
Elon Musk
Dylan Patel (as guest)
Sarah Paine
Dean Ball
Dwarkesh Patel (see note)
Dean Spears
Amanda Askell
Tyler Cowen
Alec Radford
Yann LeCun
François Chollet
Joscha Bach
Demis Hassabis
Holden Karnofsky
Gary Marcus
Tamay Besiroglu
Sundar Pichai
Jack Clark
Jensen Huang
Satya Nadella
Michael Dell
roon
Mira Murati
Ian Morris
Sam Altman
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Nick Bostrom
Paul J Werbos
Daniel Kokotajlo
Matt Levine
George Hotz
Bill Gates
Joe Carlsmith
Noam Brown
Hans Moravec
Doris Taylor
Zvi Mowshowitz
Mark Zuckerberg
Michael Levin
Helen Toner
Ajeya Cotra
Mustafa Suleyman
Jeff Bezos
Carl Shulman
Ilya Sutskever
Janus @repligate
Dan Hendrycks
David Reich
Tanner Greer
Scott Alexander
Liang Wenfeng (CEO of DeepSeek)
Nate Soares
Joe Henrich
Andrej Karpathy
Barack Obama
Robert Caro
Xiao Hong (CEO of Manus AI)
Kamala Harris
Donald Trump
Bill Clinton
100
100
61
50
50
45
39
39
37
34
34
34
34
34
34
31
31
31
31
31
28
28
28
27
26
26
26
26
26
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
23
23
22
22
22
22
20
20
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
16
15
12
11
10
9
9
8
OptionProbability
Other
Paul Christiano
Ben Goertzel
Daniel Hillis
Doug Lenat
Krantz Hanzinpantz
Eliezer Yudkowsky
John Wentworth
davidad
Vanessa Kosoy
Janus
Evan Hubinger
Buck Shlegeris
Jan Leike
Ilya Sutskever
Alex Turner
Yann LeCun
40
11
6
6
6
5
4
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
OptionProbability
Brooke Jowett
Cameron Quashie
Lottie Rae
Mark Warnock
Blanche Cruz
Jackson Goonrey
Keeley Jenkinson
Richard Skimin
Sally Foord
Simon Mee
Caleb Beeby
Lauren "Loz" Mac
Ben Davis
Aisha Washington
Cat Hooker
Daniel Lindberg
Don Rogers
Eliza Reilly
Faith Setiawan
Harry Hills
Johnson Ashak
Lyndl Kean
Paula Drew
Tez Vlamis
9
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Someone under 40 at the time of gaining the title
Dommaraju Gukesh
Fabi
R Praggnanandhaa
Alireza Firouzja
Hikaru Nakamura
Ian Nepomniachtchi
Wesley So
Giri
A woman
Daniel Naroditsky
100
100
33
31
25
22
18
15
8
6
0
OptionProbability
María Corina Machado
Alexei Kitaev
Robin Hanson
Donald Trump
Jamie Joyce
Daniel Sheehan
Daniel Hillis
John Preskill
Jared Kushner
Balaji Srinivasan
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Elon Musk
Jack Dorsey
Robert Kennedy Jr.
@Krantz
99
84
50
47
34
29
26
26
10
8
7
6
6
3
0
OptionProbability
Ray McAdam (Fine Gael)
Janice Boylan (Sinn Féin)
Séamas McGrattan (Sinn Féin)
Daniel Ennis (Social Democrats)
Mary Fitzpatrick (Fianna Fáil)
Gerry Hutch (Independent)
Malachy Steenson (Independent)
Eoghan Ó Ceannabháin (People Before Profit)
Other
24
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
