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OptionProbability
The company will be valued at >= $1 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be valued at >= $10 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
At least one of the founders (Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, Daniel Levy) will leave the company
Zvi will mention the company in a blog post
Zvi will mention the company in a blog post in 2025
The company will be valued at >= $100 Million according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will raise more than $1 billion of capital
Ilya will discuss the company on a podcast
The official SSI X account will have more than 100k followers
Ilya will remain at the company continuously until EOY 2025, or until the company is acquired/ceases to exist
The majority of their compute will come from Nvidia GPUs
I will believe the company should have invested more in AI Safety relative to Capabilities at EOY 2025
The company will have at least 100 employees
A majority of people believe that the company has been net-positive for the world according to a poll released at EOY 2025
I will meet an employee of the company in person (currently true for OAI, Anthropic, xAI but not Deepmind)
Ilya will give a presentation on research done at the company
The company will be on track to build ASI by 2030, according to a Manifold poll conducted at EOY 2025
The company will have a group of more than 10 people working on Mechanistic Interpretability
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves creating an automated AI researcher
The company will open offices outside of the US and Israel
The company will publish a Responsible Scaling Policy or similar document (e.g. OpenAI’s Preparedness Framework)
The company will include at least one image on its website
The company will be involved in a lawsuit
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^24 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will release a publicly available API for an AI model
The company will be reported to purchase at least $1 Billion in AI hardware, including cloud resources
The company will announce that their model scores >= 85 MMLU
The company will announce that their model scores >= 50 GPQA
The company will release a chatbot or any other AI system which accepts text input
It will be reported that Nvidia is an investor in the company
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves self-play/synthetic data
The company will release a new AI or AI safety benchmark (e.g. MMLU, GPQA)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^26 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has significantly advanced AI capabilities
The company will publish research which involves collaboration with at least 5 members of another leading AI lab (e.g. OAI, GDM, Anthropic, xAI)
The company will release a model scoring >= 1300 elo in the chatbot arena leaderboard
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^25 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will sell any products or services before EOY 2025
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has made significant progress in AI Alignment
The company will announce a commitment to spend at least 20% of their compute on AI Safety/Alignment
The company will be listed as a “Frontier Lab” on https://ailabwatch.org/companies/
The company will invite independent researchers/orgs to do evals on their models
The company will publish an assessment of the model’s dangerous capabilities (e.g. https://www.anthropic.com/news/frontier-threats-red-teaming-for-ai-safety)
The company will publish research related specifically to Sparse Autoencoders
The company will announce that their path to superintelligence involves continuous chain of thought
The company will be valued at >= $100 Billion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be reported to acquire an Aluminum manufacturing plant for its long term power contract
Leopold Aschenbrenner will join the company
The phrase “Feel the AGI” or “Feel the ASI” will be published somewhere on the company website
Major algorithmic secrets (e.g architecture, training methods) will be leaked/stolen
The company will announce research or models related to automated theorem proving (e.g. https://openai.com/index/generative-language-modeling-for-automated-theorem-proving/)
Elon musk will be an investor of the company
I’ll work there (@mr_mino)
The company will have a public contract with the US government to develop some technology
The company will make a GAN
The company will publish a peer-reviewed paper with more than 1000 citations
It will be reported that Sam Altman is an investor in the company
It’s reported that the company’s model scores >= 90 on the ARC-AGI challenge (public or private version)
I'll work there (@AndrewG)
There will be a public protest or boycott directed against the company with more than 100 members
The company will open source its model weights or training algorithms
It will be reported that a model produced by the company will self-exfiltrate, or attempt to do so
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=10 GW
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >=100 GW
The company’s AI will be involved in an accident which causes at least $10 million in damages
The official SSI X account will have more than 200k followers
The company will be valued at >= $1 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be acquired by another company
The company will declare bankruptcy
The company will release a model scoring in the top 3 of the chatbot arena leaderboard
The company will be publicly traded
The company’s model weights will be leaked/stolen
The company will publish a research paper written entirely by their AI system
The company will advocate for a AI scaling pause or will endorse such a proposal (e.g. https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/)
The company will build their own AI chips
The company will announce that they have created Superintelligence
The company release a video generation demo made by their AI system
I will believe at EOY 2025 the company has made significant advances in robotics or manufacturing
Their model will be the first to get a gold medal or equivalent in IMO (International Mathematics Olympiad)
Their model will be able to play Chess, Shogi, or Go at least as well as the best human players
The company will announce that they are on track to develop superintelligence by EOY 2030 or earlier
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^27 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^28 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^29 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will finish a training run reported to use more than 10^30 FLOP (e.g. by Epoch AI)
The company will be valued at >= $10 Trillion according to a reputable news source (e.g. Forbes, Reuters, NYT)
The company will be reported to build a data center with a peak power consumption of >= 1 GW
The company will release a model that reaches the #1 rank in the Chatbot Arena (including sharing the #1 rank with other models when their confidence intervals overlap)
The company will release an app available on iPhone or android
The company will publish research related to Neural Turing Machines
The company will publish at least 5 papers in peer reviewed journals
The company will publish research related to Singular Learning Theory
I will believe at EOY 2025 that the company has built an fully automated AI researcher
The company will be closer to building ASI than any other AI Lab at EOY 2025, as judged by a manifold poll
The company will change its name
The company’s model will independently solve an open mathematical conjecture created before 2024
The company will be merged with or acquired by another company
The official SSI X account will have more than 1M followers
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
85
69
37
31
24
20
20
16
11
10
9
9
9
8
7
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Daniel Gross (CEO, Safe Superintelligence)
Daniel Vincent Kramer
Koray Kavukcuoglu (DeepMind AI architect)
Soham Parekh (rumored Meta recruitment target)
John Schulman (OpenAI co-founder)
Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI co-founder, former chief scientist)
100
41
23
11
6
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1283
975