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Top stories

Teen Cancer Survivor DJ Daniel Sworn In as NYC Honorary Deputy Mayor

Authors

3

3 months ago

Prediction markets for Daniel

Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?

Nov 6, 7:45 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

87.24%chance

95249

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2615

382

Will Daniel Kokotajlo be able to sell his OpenAI equity at the next tender offer?

May 27, 9:26 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

82.42%chance

213066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2165

462

Will Daniel Larson be back in 2025?

Dec 1, 11:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

19.22%chance

33050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2050

488

Will Bishop Daniel Flores become the first Bishop of Martian land within his lifetime?

Oct 14, 10:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.29%chance

102950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3326

301

Is Daniel Lurie going to make it to the end of his term as SF Mayor?

Nov 6, 7:11 PMNov 6, 7:59 AM

86.85%chance

72394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2570

389

Will Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross still be reporting to Alex Wang in June 2026?

Jun 20, 1:12 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

36.99%chance

8525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1283

975

Daniel Kokotajlo’s P(Doom) falls below 50% before the end of 2027

Jan 13, 12:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.99%chance

13210

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1053

971

Little Daniel stocks

May 4, 12:36 AMMay 4, 3:59 AM

2169

OptionProbability

NO

YES

218

11

Will Daniel Zhang (CEO of Alibaba) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 27, 2:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.48%chance

6125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

217

97

Will Daniel Larson still be alive at the end of 2027?

Aug 26, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74.6%chance

273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

58

Will Daniel and Harper get back together?

Dec 24, 5:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

70.34%chance

254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

154

65

Poland: Will Daniel Obajtek be jailed by 2030?

Dec 21, 3:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56%chance

332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

71

68

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