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Prediction markets for Dario

By the end of 2028, will AI models, as Dario Amodei speculates, be able to “replicate and survive in the wild”?

Apr 22, 9:43 PMDec 28, 7:59 AM

67.19%chance

384159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1552

520

Will Sam Altman and Dario Amodei hold hands again, before 2030?

Feb 19, 6:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.6%chance

18973

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1322

756

Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?

Aug 16, 4:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.86%chance

12873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

342

29

Will "Dario probably doesn't believe in superintell..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 12, 6:40 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.3%chance

5385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

952

Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 27, 8:35 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

4322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?

Oct 13, 7:03 PMOct 12, 3:59 AM

79%chance

10289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

52

Will the combined net worth of Greg Brockman and Dario Amodei exceed that of Elon Musk, before one of them dies?

Jul 5, 6:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.8%chance

6158

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

17

Will Dario amodei be banned from entering China by eoy2028

Sep 17, 3:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.65%chance

2148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

83

Will Dario Amodei Say Anthropic Has a “Genius in a datacenter” before April 2027?

Nov 5, 10:37 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

4122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

Dario Amodei on Dwarkesh podcast again before June 2027

Nov 5, 10:41 PMMay 31, 11:59 PM

51.08%chance

3116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

Will "Dario Amodei – The Adolescence of Technology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jan 27, 5:23 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.01%chance

295

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

773

Will curt jaimungal end up interviewing Dario Amodei at Anthropic?

Jul 27, 5:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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