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Prediction markets for Day

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74%chance

293621168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2825

2569

Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.85%chance

41289221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11197

10522

Will congestion pricing in NY be stopped for more than 30 days in the next year?

Jan 21, 3:23 AMJan 22, 7:59 AM

15.71%chance

2948660

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19025

6471

Will the S&P 500 AGAIN decrease by over 5% in one day in 2025?

Apr 4, 9:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.1%chance

14235011

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1488

672

US strikes Iran on 2+ separate days in 2025?

Jun 18, 7:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

9429764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Sam Altman be alive on the day strong AGI is publicly unveiled?

Mar 24, 4:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

89.41%chance

13227373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2284

859

Elon Musk charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Feb 3, 12:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.81%chance

4421846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21142

7620

One of Elon Musk’s college aged henchmen charged with a federal crime before the end of day on December 31, 2025

Feb 3, 5:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.44%chance

2813335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

21502

5811

Will Barack Obama be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?

Mar 23, 7:21 PMMar 30, 7:21 PM

50.94%chance

543008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2066

1904

Will a major dating app use LLMs to simulate conversations by Valentine's Day 2026?

Feb 14, 1:02 AMFeb 15, 7:59 AM

46.76%chance

202135

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10868

9165

Will AI lead to a 3.5 day workweek by 2040?

Oct 7, 9:10 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.19%chance

222100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

959

Will Joe Biden be alive on the day a human next steps on the moon?

Mar 23, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.21%chance

331970

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2353

1696

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