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Prediction markets for Deep

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.08%chance

20751265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3275

1301

Deep Learning (permanent)

Mar 27, 2:21 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

5111375

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1621

665

Will there be any large-scale protests about content generated by Deep Learning by the end of 2025?

Dec 10, 5:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19%chance

505555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1941

522

Will geometric deep learning turn out to be as influential an idea as transformers?

May 7, 6:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.66%chance

604095

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1971

682

Will the first AGI be built mostly within the deep learning paradigm?

May 21, 6:31 PMMay 28, 9:59 PM

80.31%chance

253656

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2020

495

Will Tamay Besiroglu win his Deep Learning vs Program Synthesis bet with Mike Knoop?

Oct 28, 1:24 AMNov 4, 6:59 AM

86.59%chance

142088

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2541

393

Conditional on a major breakthrough happening in physics thanks to AI, will it be due to deep learning?

Aug 27, 1:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

71.54%chance

26829

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

960

Will a research base be established in the deep sea before Mars?

Feb 17, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.79%chance

16767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1199

898

Will a permanent research base be established in the deep sea before Mars?

Feb 17, 11:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.63%chance

14269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1058

962

Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?

Aug 8, 5:57 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.89%chance

3230

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4071

3711

Will there be a second edition of the "Deep Learning Book" within 10 years after publication

Jun 1, 2:05 PMNov 18, 10:59 PM

52.36%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

954

Will "A deep critique of AI 2027’s bad timeline models" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 19, 9:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.23%chance

245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

763

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