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Prediction markets for Deming

Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2028

Jan 3, 9:01 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41%chance

281227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

196

148

What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?

Jun 10, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41215

OptionProbability

80% to 90%

60% to 70%

70% to 80%

90% or more

50% to 60%

40% to 50%

Less than 40%

34

21

17

15

9

3

2

Is herpes a causative factor in dementia?

Jun 14, 2:06 AMOct 11, 2:06 AM

75.67%chance

131059

OptionVotes

NO

YES

940

616

Will cancer be less deadly than dementia in 2030?

Mar 4, 6:58 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

22.89%chance

8390

OptionVotes

YES

NO

338

216

Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2030

Jan 3, 9:04 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

82.98%chance

13359

OptionVotes

NO

YES

285

58

Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2028

Feb 9, 5:28 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35.77%chance

15307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

136

Does Trump have Lewy Body Dementia?

Jun 22, 7:49 PMJun 23, 4:59 AM

38.69%chance

8154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

79

Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030

Feb 9, 5:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

63.65%chance

8140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

85

Will Lada Nuzhna have a higher google search volume than Laura Deming by 2030?

Apr 18, 10:35 PMSep 1, 8:01 AM

28.26%chance

6108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

146

140

What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?

Jun 10, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

144

OptionProbability

90% or more

80% to 90%

Less than 40%

40% to 50%

50% to 60%

60% to 70%

70% to 80%

22

15

13

13

13

13

13

Will Sean Strickland suffer from dementia before age 60?

Jul 8, 10:58 PMFeb 28, 4:59 AM

38.93%chance

217

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102

80

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