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Will Russia attack NATO before 2034?

Nov 25, 11:48 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.55%chance

406592

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

116

Will the S&P500 be greater than $8000 in 2026?

Jan 5, 9:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

53.55%chance

344176

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

Will German trains be on time again by 2030?

May 23, 2:10 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

30.07%chance

213306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

656

Will Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?

Jul 30, 1:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

77%chance

272995

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

55

Who will win a Nobel Prize before 2030? [Unlinked free response]

Oct 10, 5:21 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

272961

OptionProbability

Omar M. Yaghi

Susumu Kitagawa

Daron Acemoglu

Demis Hassabis

Jun Ye

Salman Rushdie

David Deutsch

Peter Zoller

Gilles Brassard

Charles Henry Bennett

Robert S Langer

Olga Botner

Can Xue

Krzysztof Matyjaszewski

Elizaveta 'Monetochka' Gyrdymova

Ed Boyden

Peter Shor

Chi-Huey Wong

William Jorgesen

Charles Leonard Bennett

Jean Fréchet

Charles L. Brooks III

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Tao Zhang

Haruki Murakami

Michele Parrinello

Roberto Car

Anthony A. Hyman

AI

Thomas Piketty

Omar Farha

100

100

99

99

70

53

53

50

46

45

45

43

41

41

41

41

40

36

35

34

34

29

29

20

18

17

17

13

9

5

4

When will Stuttgart 21 be in operation?

Dec 23, 7:54 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

111604

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2029

2028

2027

2025

2026

Never

63

17

11

4

2

2

1

Will Stuttgart 21 open in 2031?

Jun 9, 1:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.46%chance

61093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

116

86

Will Die Linke successfully seize at least 200,000 housing units in Berlin before EOY 2031?

Sep 21, 6:37 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.25%chance

5630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1630

769

Is the Church–Turing–Deutsch principle true? Is all fundamental physics computable?

Dec 6, 2:58 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.94%chance

8210

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

99

Will David Deutsch write a Textbook on Quantum Physics before he dies?

Aug 28, 9:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.95%chance

6143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

205

63

Will Deutsche Bahn sell its subsidiary DB International Operations in 2026?

Jan 26, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.44%chance

675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

107

93

Will Heye Groß win the Verdienstorden der Bundesrepublik Deutschland by EOY2060?

Sep 21, 6:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41.23%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

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