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Prediction markets for Dev

Will SotA on PaperBench (Code-Dev) surpass 75% in 2025?

Apr 7, 1:59 PMJan 15, 11:59 PM

14.31%chance

117255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12235

2473

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2025?

Apr 8, 8:43 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

2.35%chance

336238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5563

683

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2027?

Apr 8, 8:43 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

12.33%chance

383798

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1698

838

Will more professional devs use Rust than C++ in the 2030 StackOverflow developer survey?

Feb 3, 5:22 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

55.47%chance

392013

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1281

666

Will the number of human engineers in front end dev jobs be halved by 2030?

Apr 8, 8:44 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

43.71%chance

361493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

775

Will Haunted Chocolatier (Stardew Valley Dev's next game) release before Jan 1st 2026?

Jan 15, 10:55 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.71%chance

12988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

539

8

Major protest against automation/AI dev. by 2028?

Dec 27, 1:06 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

71.06%chance

23738

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

884

Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?

Apr 8, 11:04 AMApr 8, 10:59 PM

74.74%chance

18329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

960

[Hololive DEV_IS ReGLOSS] Which talent will leave Hololive last?

Jan 25, 10:51 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

1230

OptionProbability

Juufuutei Raden

Todoroki Hajime

Ichijou Ririka

Otonose Kanade

Hiodoshi Ao

33

28

15

13

11

Is Kinger a dev of the Circus in the Amazing Digital Circus?

Aug 18, 10:27 AMAug 18, 10:25 AM

64.18%chance

299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

134

75

What will be the responsibilities of a web dev in 2030?

Jan 2, 12:32 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

345

OptionProbability

Deployment, devops (choosing where it is deployed, how..)

Debugging (existing AI generated code)

Security (penetration tests...)

Unit tests

Other

There will be no web devs

There will be no more software engineering job

28

14

14

14

14

10

6

Will Unhinged Software Devs twitter / x community be deleted by the end of 2026?

Feb 14, 5:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.57%chance

322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

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