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Prediction markets for Devi

Did tech companies spy on you through device microphones?

Jan 4, 5:31 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.11%chance

7310550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3614

277

Will Apple still be selling a device called the iPhone in 2035?

Mar 25, 2:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

75.17%chance

402511

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

816

Will Danny Devito play Wario in any official Nintendo movie before the end of 2029?

May 15, 6:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.22%chance

262252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3445

1305

Will small open weight models self replicate as a virus on smart TVs and similar devices before July of 2027?

Oct 12, 10:33 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

38.74%chance

302150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

795

Will Apple have on-device TTS that is indistinguishable from a human narrator before 2027?

Jan 21, 2:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

59.28%chance

361830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1090

763

Real world adblocking device available by end 2031

Oct 2, 5:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.07%chance

15729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

874

By the end of 2050, will it be possible to quickly increase an adult human’s IQ by at least two standard deviations?

Mar 27, 1:00 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

28.01%chance

25604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

892

Will Neuralink's PRIME study report any unanticipated adverse device reactions?

Jan 31, 8:39 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.61%chance

17461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1173

596

Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?

Oct 24, 3:32 AMDec 31, 3:01 PM

21%chance

10384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

957

100+ people regain mobility using a Neuralink device by mid 2027

Jun 19, 5:34 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

39.46%chance

7371

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

807

Space Mission or groundbased observation device whose major objectives from the start include observation of 3l/Atlas?

Oct 14, 9:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.32%chance

2255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

537

100

Will the Michigan Tinnitus Device (Auricle) be released before the end of 2030?

Nov 29, 10:16 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.11%chance

4130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1699

1502

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