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Prediction markets for Dexter OR

Will 1% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2033?

May 11, 1:46 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13%chance

231261

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1713

838

Will a robot demonstrate exceptional speed, versatility, and performance in extreme environments by 2040?

Mar 19, 9:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.99%chance

291162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

787

Which peak human skills will smart robots have by 2026?

Mar 17, 12:05 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

27989

OptionProbability

Reasoning

Speed

Strength

Emotional intelligence

Dexterity

All the ones above

75

74

68

59

20

11

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

Will 25% of Americans be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.45%chance

22500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

989

987

Will I reach the ruby palace in OTIS before the 2026 spring semester ends?

Aug 18, 11:18 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

55.66%chance

7441

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

89

Will 25% of EU citizens be cognitively augmented humans by 2040?

May 1, 9:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

19.11%chance

19383

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

962

When will a humanoid robot be able to unbox a 5,000+ piece new Lego set, read the manual, and assemble the entire model?

Jan 9, 8:29 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4103

OptionProbability

2028

2030-2034

2027

2029

2035-2039

2040-2044

2045-2049

2050-2100

2026

25

18

16

12

7

6

6

6

4

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