OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
DHMO in the water supply
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Santa is rigged
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Gamergate was right
Dead Internet theory
Groundhog Day is rigged
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
John McAfee didn't kill himself
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
China made covid 19 in a lab
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
China was not genociding Uyghurs
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
The CIA killed JFK
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Bush did 9/11
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Israel killed JFK
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
The NFL is rigged
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Harold Holt murdered
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Princess Diana was assassinated
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
Human didnt evolve from apes
Exercise is bad for your health
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
QR codes are satanic
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Mandella Effect in general is real
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
US government is harboring aliens
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
The illuminati runs the world
*All* health care is net negative for health
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
Yeti is real or similar creature
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Q is Putin
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Africa isn't real
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Earth is hollow
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Flossing is bad for your health
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
91
90
89
85
84
80
76
75
74
74
71
70
69
67
55
52
51
50
46
46
44
42
42
41
40
40
39
39
38
38
37
35
35
34
32
31
31
30
30
30
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
26
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
23
23
23
22
21
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
18
18
18
18
18
18
17
17
17
17
17
16
16
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
13
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
11
11
11
11
11
10
10
10
10
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
Ciprian Ciucu
Daniel Băluță
Anca Alexandrescu
Cătălin Drulă
Ana Ciceală
Vlad Gheorghe
Other
Gabriela Firea
Cristian Popescu Piedone
Rareș Hopincă
Cătălin Cîrstoiu
George-Cristian Tuță
Vlad Voiculescu
Elena Lasconi
Clotilde Armand
Sebastian Burduja
Claudiu Târziu
Mihai Enache
Diana Șoșoacă
Eugen Tomac
Nicușor Dan will not win the presidential elections
Dan Trifu
38
32
13
11
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The Last Unicorn by Peter Beagle
Alcatraz versus the Evil Librarians by Brandon Sanderson
The Amulet of Samarkand by Jonathan Stroud
The Mysterious Benedict Society by Trenton Stewart
The Rithmatist by Brandon Sanderson
Sabriel by Garth Nix
The Adventures of Sherlock Holmes by Arthur Conan Doyle
Mistborn by Brandon Sanderson
The Phantom Tollbooth by Norton Juster
Ender's Game by Orson Scott Card
Holes by Louis Sachar
Animorphs (series) by K. A. Applegate
The Witches by Roald Dahl
Small Gods by Terry Pratchett
Watership Down by Richard Adams
Jurassic Park by Michael Crichton
Have Spacesuit Will Travel by Robert Heinlein
Magician: Apprentice by Raymond E. Feist
Airborne by Kenneth Oppel
The Dark Lord of Derkholm by Diana Wynn Jones
Something Wicked This Way Comes by Ray Bradbury
The Scarlet Pimpernel by Baroness Orczy
Call of the Wild by Jack London
Eagle of the Ninth by Rosemary Sutcliffe
Mr Midshipman Hornblower by C S Forester
Mythology by Edith Hamilton
A Magical Girl Retires by Park Seolyeon
The Paper Menagerie and Other Stories by Ken Liu
Tales of the Unexpected by Roald Dahl
Howl’s Moving Castle by Diana Wynn Jones
Project Hail Mary by Andy Weir
Harry Potter and the methods of rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky
Andromeda Strain by Michael Chriton
On Basilisk Station (Honor Harrington #1) by David Weber
The Martian by Andy Weir
The Culture series by Iain M Banks
A Wizard of Earthsea by Ursula LeGuin
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
82
82
81
76
72
65
64
61
59
59
59
55
53
50
50
50
50
50
50
49
45
43
36
31
29
29
0
OptionProbability
Swain
LeBlanc
Mel
Darius
Draven
Vladimir
Rell
Katarina
Kled
Elise
Talon
Samira
Riven
Trundle
Viktor
Yasuo
Taliyah
Nilah
Vayne
Graves
Syndra
Jinx
Sylas
Yunara
Kindred
K'Sante
Singed
Shyvana
Zeri
Ambessa
Vex
Lissandra
Morgana
Sion
Sivir
Tristana
Corki
Nidalee
Poppy
Shen
Malzahar
Urgot
Sona
Irelia
Maokai
Jarvan IV
Nocturne
Rumble
Nautilus
Fiora
Milio
Twisted Fate
Warwick
Blitzcrank
Mordekaiser
Ezreal
Garen
Akali
Lux
Varus
Vi
Ekko
Jhin
Neeko
Sett
Yone
Smolder
Thresh
Azir
Illaoi
Ivern
Senna
Bel'Veth
Zac
Yorick
Pantheon
Olaf
Galio
Cassiopeia
Leona
Skarner
Jayce
Diana
Zed
Nami
Lucian
Gnar
Qiyana
Aphelios
Hwei
Aurora
Udyr
Zyra
Rengar
Kha'Zix
Vel'Koz
Bard
Tahm Kench
Rakan
Xayah
Kayn
Zoe
Pyke
Yuumi
Lillia
Viego
Naafiri
Briar
Gwen
Camille
Soraka
Teemo
Zilean
Tryndamere
Twitch
Cho'Gath
Kassadin
Taric
Dr. Mundo
Shaco
Gragas
Kog'Maw
Karma
Lee Sin
Orianna
Volibear
Sejuani
Ziggs
Lulu
Quinn
Braum
Kalista
Rek'Sai
Ornn
Kai'Sa
Akshan
Renata Glasc
Aatrox
Caitlyn
Veigar
Ahri
Aurelion Sol
Annie
Ashe
Fiddlesticks
Jax
Kayle
Master Yi
Nunu & Willump
Evelynn
Karthus
Anivia
Rammus
Gangplank
Janna
Nasus
Kennen
Xin Zhao
Miss Fortune
Wukong
Fizz
Hecarim
Brand
Seraphine
Alistar
Ryze
Amumu
Malphite
Heimerdinger
Renekton
Xerath
90
90
90
86
86
80
80
69
69
59
55
55
50
47
45
41
41
41
40
40
40
40
40
40
37
37
35
35
35
35
34
33
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
26
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
25
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
24
22
21
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
18
17
16
16
15
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
14
12
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
OptionProbability
Other
Grand Maester Pycelle
Kevan Lannister
Maester Aemon
Janos Slynt
Oberyn Martell
Arys Oakheart
Beric Dondarrion
Quentyn Martell
Nimble Dick
Robert Baratheon
18
16
14
10
9
8
6
6
6
6
1
OptionProbability
MrBeast
T-Series
Cocomelon
Sony Entertainment Television Indi
PewDiePie
Kids Diana Show
Like Nastya
WWE
Vlad and Niki
Zee Music Company
Other
99
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
YES
NO
2031
812
OptionProbability
Nicușor Dan (Indep.)
Other
George Simion (AUR)
Călin Georgescu (Indep.)
Ilie Bolojan (PNL)
Victor Ponta (Indep.)
Diana Soșoacă (SOS)
George Becali (Indep.)
Sorin Grindeanu (PSD)
Anamaria Gavrilă (POT)
Elena Lasconi (USR)
Daniel Băluță (PSD)
Marius Lulea (AUR)
Dominic Fritz (USR)
Kelemen Hunor (UDMR)
Election cancelled/annulled
48
14
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
186
100


