Do News

YES

Generating labeled diagrams of some arbitrary device(s) (within reason)

Beat a mainline Pokémon game, glitchless, with no more assistance than ClaudePlaysPokemon, in a month of compute time

Do end to end taxes when given relevant information (W2s, personal info, etc)

Have human conversations that feel natural (the human knows it's an AI)

Book airline tickets from simple instructions (from/to, dates/time, class, price, payment information)

Independently turning 1 thousand $ or more into 1.2x that amount in one year

Solve novel cryptic crossword clues

Recognize sarcasm as well as a typical human

Write an essay on a highschool-level topic that doesn't have "AI-generated" vibes

Name every [metro system] station whose name contains/doesn't contain [letter or letters], with >95% accuracy (excluding weird edge cases like stations with multiple names)

Predict future better than human experts in some area of forecasting (eg politics, sports, technology)

Reliably follow an instruction for the duration of a long conversation without the instruction being reiterated

Consistently stop hallucinating after being corrected by the user

Solve intermediate no-guess minesweeper boards at least 80% of the time

Write a somewhat original, full length, screen-play with a coherent story, with no plot or continuity errors.

Consistently solve simple snowflake sudoku variants (via image, with the added rules included in the image; eg 6 hexes with killer cages)

Fold a paper airplane

Make correct Truchet tiles

Consistently and correctly answer prompts of the format: "How many times does the word [word] occur in the following text: [~10000 words]" without writing and executing code or utilising any other external tools

1d Solve or bypass Cloudflare's August 2027 captcha with the same first attempt success rate as a human

Learn any skill twice as energy-efficiently as a human

Reliably and *exactly* solve "here's a list of things. [list of > 50 things]. Compare it to [category of > 100 things present in the training data], and report which ones are missing".

Stop making any obvious mistakes (e.g. strawberry, 9.11>9.9)

teleoperate a robot to tidy up random kitchens - Gary Marcus

Resist being successfully jailbroken in a week when made public

Make a cup of tea in a random, real-life kitchen.

Do the laundry (wash+dry+iron)

Kettle-stitching an antiquarian book - Hilarius Bookbinder

Untangle a pair of jumbled 25ft Christmas lights with same outward appearance

Physically construct a simple lego set (<100 parts) starting from the box with no prior knowledge of the set or how it is constructed

Make fine distinctions of taste at the level of a food critic or a culinary professional - carl feynman

independently turning 1 million $ or more into 10x that amount in <=1 year

Legally prescribe a schedule II drug, administer a vaccination or sedation, or authorize a Medicare inpatient admission

Collect 120 stars in super mario 64 in less than 12 a presses - Edmund Nelson

Convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that AI alignment is solved

Convert one million dollars into 10 million dollars over a period of one year (>20% success rate)

voting in elections - @realDonaldTrump on manifold

Kill everyone - Liron

Dec 2026 or later/never

Nov 2026

Oct 2026

May 2026

Jun 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Mar 2026

YES

Before Q3 2032

Before Q1 2032

Before Q3 2031

Before Q1 2031

Before Q3 2030

Before Q1 2030

Before Q3 2029

Before Q1 2029

Before Q3 2028

Before Q1 2028

Before Q3 2027

NO

NO

NO

NO

YES

YES

Above 0

Above 3

Above 6

Above 9