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Prediction markets for Do

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

496718482

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14169

By 2027 there will be a robot capable of performing every task a residential electrician can do

Jan 19, 5:29 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.02%chance

11121965

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3565

1458

When will I do my first clean pull-up?

Jan 4, 12:18 AMJan 31, 10:59 PM

97733

OptionProbability

Apr 2026

May 2026

Dec 2026 or later/never

Jun 2026

Mar 2026

Jul 2026

Aug 2026

Sep 2026

Nov 2026

Jan 2026

Feb 2026

Oct 2026

14

12

10

9

7

7

7

7

7

6

6

6

Will AI be able to accurately do my taxes by EOY 2026?

Apr 25, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.45%chance

724538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

897

Which computational universe do we live in?

Sep 17, 5:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

283938

OptionProbability

Cryptomania

Minicrypt

Heuristica

Pessiland

Algorithmica

75

8

7

7

3

1-hour AGI. A system capable of any computer-based task a human can do in 1 hour will be developed by end of 2026.

Mar 8, 4:51 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30%chance

413738

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

629

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

72.96%chance

243510

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2348

1009

Do we live in a simulation?

Nov 24, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

38%chance

472283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

921

Will someone do something IRL to profit on Manifold that gets news/courts coverage by 2035?

May 21, 11:25 AMMay 25, 3:59 PM

52.41%chance

181709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1049

953

Will Alex Honnold ever stop doing free-solo ascents?

Jan 22, 12:54 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

65.83%chance

24897

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

1089

Will a manifold user do something very cool by the end of 2029?

Nov 8, 3:18 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.94%chance

13498

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1056

843

Will Meter, Inc do an initial public offering or get acquired before the end of 2030?

May 25, 3:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.47%chance

13159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

1696

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