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Prediction markets for Don
If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?
Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
11.97%chance
7814234
OptionVotes
1928
787
Will Elon Musk actually ship a rocket car collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla as stated to Don Lemon by EOY 2035?
Mar 19, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
65.92%chance
674233
OptionVotes
1602
581
OptionVotes
3127
320
Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?
Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
25.98%chance
251693
OptionVotes
1415
789
Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?
Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM
56.9%chance
6341
OptionVotes
1149
870
Will "Please, Don't Roll Your Own Metaethics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Nov 13, 3:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
24.33%chance
3218
OptionVotes
1100
557
Will "Drone WMDs Don’t Need Any New Technology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 22, 10:46 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
18.74%chance
3124
OptionVotes
1050
741
Will "(Don't fear) the strangelet" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 5, 5:49 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
16.46%chance
385
OptionVotes
1027
849
Will "Bad Problems Don't Stop Being Bad Because Som..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
May 9, 4:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
17%chance
133
OptionVotes
1033
821
Will "The World Keeps Getting Saved and You Don’t N..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Feb 17, 4:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
15.79%chance
120
OptionVotes
1020
885
Will "AI companies' eval reports mostly don't suppo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000
Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
14%chance
00
OptionVotes
1000
1000