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Top stories

Survivor Forgives as Mushroom Killer Erin Patterson Nears Sentencing

Survivor Forgives as Mushroom Killer Erin Patterson Nears Sentencing

Authors

19

5 months ago

Prediction markets for Don

Will Elon Musk actually ship a rocket car collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla as stated to Don Lemon by EOY 2035?

Mar 19, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.11%chance

663880

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1421

689

Will I get paid willingly from the next legally-enforced bet I make with a person I don't know?

Dec 20, 6:52 PMDec 21, 6:50 PM

52.98%chance

131993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?

Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.98%chance

251693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

789

If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.84%chance

19648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

982

Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?

Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM

56.9%chance

6341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

870

Will the Don't Build It March happen by EOY 2026?

Nov 18, 4:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.17%chance

7300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

819

Will "Don't Sell Stock to Donate" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jan 4, 3:23 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.63%chance

5184

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

957

Will "Please, Don't Roll Your Own Metaethics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 3:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Don't let people buy credit with borrowed funds" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 18, 7:39 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Short Timelines Don't Devalue Long Horizon Re..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 27, 8:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.88%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

941

Will "AI companies' eval reports mostly don't suppo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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