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Top stories

Survivor Forgives as Mushroom Killer Erin Patterson Nears Sentencing

Survivor Forgives as Mushroom Killer Erin Patterson Nears Sentencing

Authors

19

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Don

If I set my curtain on fire and don't attempt to put it out for the first 1 minute, will my house burn down?

Nov 20, 7:10 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.97%chance

7814234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1928

787

Will Elon Musk actually ship a rocket car collaboration between SpaceX and Tesla as stated to Don Lemon by EOY 2035?

Mar 19, 3:44 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.84%chance

663950

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1489

644

Will the Don't Build It March happen by EOY 2026?

Nov 18, 4:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.78%chance

162330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2877

348

Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?

Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.98%chance

251693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

789

Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?

Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM

56.9%chance

6341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

870

Will "Please, Don't Roll Your Own Metaethics" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 13, 3:19 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

24.33%chance

3218

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

557

Will "Drone WMDs Don’t Need Any New Technology" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 22, 10:46 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.74%chance

3124

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

741

Will "(Don't fear) the strangelet" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jul 5, 5:49 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

16.46%chance

385

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1027

849

Will "Bad Problems Don't Stop Being Bad Because Som..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 9, 4:18 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17%chance

133

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1033

821

Will "The World Keeps Getting Saved and You Don’t N..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Feb 17, 4:29 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.79%chance

120

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

885

Will "AI companies' eval reports mostly don't suppo..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 9, 6:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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