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Prediction markets for Driver

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

127565977

OptionProbability

Other

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Interest on held cash

Selling data / API access / colocation

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

34

32

9

7

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

Who will get more Points in the 2025 Formula 1 Season? Driver Duell

Mar 4, 4:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3787240

OptionProbability

Verstappen - Lawson

Norris - Leclerc

Verstappen - Hamilton

Piastri - Verstappen

Piastri - Russel

Russel - Antonelli

Verstappen - Leclerc

Norris - Verstappen

Leclerc - Hamilton

Hülkenberg - Bortoleto

Ocon - Bearman

Verstappen - Russel

Hamilton - Antonelli

Russel - Leclerc

Alonso - Stroll

Tsunoda - Hadjar

Norris - Piastri

Sainz - Albon

Lawson - Antonelli

99

94

94

93

91

90

90

87

87

85

82

81

80

64

60

49

41

14

4

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7756615

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

73

23

3

0

0

0

0

🏁 F1 2025: Which Drivers Will Finish Top 3 For The 2025 FIA F1 Drivers' Championship?

Dec 9, 1:28 AMNov 30, 1:00 PM

5312116

OptionProbability

Lando Norris (McLaren)

Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

Yuki Tsunoda (Previously Liam Lawson) (Red Bull)

George Russel (Mercedes)

Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)

Pierre Gasly (Alpine)

Jack Doohan (Alpine)

Alexander Albon (Williams)

Carlos Sainz Jr. (Williams)

Liam Lawson (Previously Yuki Tsunoda) (VCARB)

Isack Hadjar (VCARB)

Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber/Stake)

Gabriel Bortoleto (Sauber/Stake)

Esteban Ocon (Haas)

Ollie Bearman (Haas)

32

32

28

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will there be a popular fad to put a life-size plastic skeleton in the driver’s seat of a self-driving car before 2030

Jun 18, 5:06 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.31%chance

325229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

628

Drunk driving is legal again for self-driving car drivers in at least one US state before 2033

Jun 26, 7:04 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.92%chance

683206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1696

903

Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2100?

Jun 10, 12:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

65.09%chance

18826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

954

Will robotic delivery be here by 2029 at a scale to replace a significant share of UPS drivers?

Aug 9, 1:15 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

20.08%chance

19644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

940

Will I regret not getting a drivers license in 2023 by 2030?

Dec 29, 10:55 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.98%chance

14556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1256

1213

Will I regret getting a driver's license in 2023 by 2030?

Dec 29, 11:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.51%chance

15445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

916

Will the BLS show growth in delivery truck driver employment through 2029?

May 7, 9:29 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

52.15%chance

12410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

876

Will a self-driving taxi service be cheaper than an Uber ride (with a driver) to the same location on 2025-12-31

Jan 2, 11:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

6290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

919

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