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Prediction markets for Driver

Which will be Manifold's largest revenue driver at the end of 2025?

Aug 11, 10:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

159662260

OptionProbability

Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)

Other

Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets

Selling data / API access / colocation

Interest on held cash

House rake on games (e.g. poker)

B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)

Transactions fees from trades

Subscription plan

On-site advertising

Job board / hiring program

Sales of digital goods

Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)

35

28

14

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

Who will get more Points in the 2025 Formula 1 Season? Driver Duell

Mar 4, 4:21 PMDec 11, 10:38 PM

56174050

OptionProbability

Verstappen - Lawson

Russel - Antonelli

Hülkenberg - Bortoleto

Norris - Leclerc

Piastri - Russel

Verstappen - Hamilton

Leclerc - Hamilton

Verstappen - Leclerc

Verstappen - Russel

Russel - Leclerc

Alonso - Stroll

Norris - Piastri

Norris - Verstappen

Hamilton - Antonelli

Piastri - Verstappen

Sainz - Albon

Ocon - Bearman

Tsunoda - Hadjar

Lawson - Antonelli

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

96

85

74

27

25

12

12

4

0

Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7756948

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

80

15

4

0

0

0

0

Will there be a popular fad to put a life-size plastic skeleton in the driver’s seat of a self-driving car before 2030

Jun 18, 5:06 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.31%chance

325229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

628

Drunk driving is legal again for self-driving car drivers in at least one US state before 2033

Jun 26, 7:04 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.17%chance

693256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1746

889

Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2060?

Aug 7, 6:51 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

31.93%chance

301301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1194

879

Will a mass driver be constructed on the Moon before 2100?

Jun 10, 12:45 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

66.15%chance

18856

OptionVotes

NO

YES

984

984

Will robotic delivery be here by 2029 at a scale to replace a significant share of UPS drivers?

Aug 9, 1:15 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

20.08%chance

19644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

940

Will I regret not getting a drivers license in 2023 by 2030?

Dec 29, 10:55 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.98%chance

14556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1256

1213

Will I regret getting a driver's license in 2023 by 2030?

Dec 29, 11:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.51%chance

15445

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1167

916

Will the BLS show growth in delivery truck driver employment through 2029?

May 7, 9:29 PMDec 25, 4:59 AM

52.15%chance

12410

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1104

876

Will a self-driving taxi service be cheaper than an Uber ride (with a driver) to the same location on 2025-12-31

Jan 2, 11:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.23%chance

6290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

929

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