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Prediction markets for Du

Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

Sep 13, 6:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7333700

OptionProbability

Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough

Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI

Makes it to 1000

Dies before AGI has been developed

Dies for other reason post-AGI

Chooses not to live to 1000

30

27

20

15

6

3

Major internet outage due to undersea cables breaking by end of 2026?

Aug 3, 12:14 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

36.63%chance

5622347

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5924

1640

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

27.82%chance

3118945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14347

7601

Which UFC fighters will be champion at the end of 2026?

Dec 23, 4:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53875

OptionProbability

Islam Makhachev

Khamzat Chimaev

Tom Aspinall

Ilia Topuria

Alex Pereira

Petr Yan

Joshua Van

Alexandre Pantoja

Shavkhat Rakhmonov

Diego Lopes

Arman Tsarukyan

Alexander Volkanovski

Lerone Muphy

Merab Dvalishvili

Umar Nurmagomedov

Manel Kape

Cyril Gane

Nassourdine Imavov

Anthony Hernandez

Tatsuro Taira

Carlos Ulberg

Jiri Prochazka

Ian Garry

Paddy Pimblett

Movsar Evloev

Magomed Ankalaev

Jean Silva

Azamat Murzakanov

Max Holloway

Kamaru Usman

Dricus Du Plessis

Sean O’Malley

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Jack Della Maddalena

Carlos Prates

57

54

45

41

40

37

34

29

27

26

25

25

25

25

25

25

24

22

21

20

19

18

18

18

18

16

16

14

14

12

11

11

10

7

6

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

19.42%chance

31576

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7442

5382

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4652

3621

Will OpenAI make significant changes OR discontinue Sora due to "long-term user satisfaction," two years after launch?

Oct 1, 6:00 PMSep 30, 5:51 PM

8735

OptionProbability

OpenAI makes significant changes to Sora

OpenAI discontinues Sora

51

44

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.16%chance

22378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

788

Est ce qun supporter va rentrer sur le terrain lors du dernier match a Félix Bollaert ?

Feb 5, 10:41 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

59.02%chance

2200

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

833

Will La Griffe Du Lion be doxx'd by EOY2030?

Aug 26, 5:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Quanto tempo dura o namora da Thati Azevedo

Jan 27, 7:33 PMDec 31, 7:33 PM

00

OptionProbability

1º trimestre 2026

2º trimestre 2026

3º trimestre 2026

4º trimestre 2026

25

25

25

25

Is La Griffe du Lion funny?

Aug 26, 5:05 PM

00

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