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Will @NathanpmYoung live to 1000 due to AGI? And if not, why?

Sep 13, 6:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7635270

OptionProbability

Natural death post-AGI / AGI does not solve aging quickly enough

Accident / killed by AGI or rogue AI

Dies before AGI has been developed

Makes it to 1000

Dies for other reason post-AGI

Chooses not to live to 1000

33

28

15

14

6

4

Which UFC fighters will be champion at the end of 2026?

Dec 23, 4:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3426718

OptionProbability

Joshua Van

Islam Makhachev

Carlos Ulberg

Cyril Gane

Petr Yan

Alexander Volkanovski

Movsar Evloev

Merab Dvalishvili

Arman Tsarukyan

Jiri Prochazka

Nassourdine Imavov

Magomed Ankalaev

Alexandre Pantoja

Max Holloway

Dricus Du Plessis

Paddy Pimblett

Kamaru Usman

Umar Nurmagomedov

Sean O’Malley

Khamzat Chimaev

Manel Kape

Carlos Prates

Jean Silva

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Shavkhat Rakhmonov

Alex Pereira

Diego Lopes

Jack Della Maddalena

Tatsuro Taira

Tom Aspinall

Anthony Hernandez

Ian Garry

Ilia Topuria

Lerone Muphy

Azamat Murzakanov

94

90

88

64

62

52

35

35

25

22

22

21

20

14

13

13

12

12

11

10

10

9

9

8

6

5

5

4

4

3

3

3

3

3

2

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.6%chance

3619507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14871

7405

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

17.74%chance

52226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8092

5234

In 2050, we still won't be able to exactly duplicate a strawberry.

Feb 23, 7:50 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

49.72%chance

281532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

340

Will the US have 200,000 overseas active-duty military personnel before 2030?

Feb 6, 4:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.84%chance

301176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

858

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4652

3621

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

24591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

819

Will the US Gini index measured by the OECD go above 0.43 before the end of 2028, potentially due to AI developments ?

Dec 27, 4:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55%chance

11274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

242

126

Will La Griffe Du Lion be doxx'd by EOY2030?

Aug 26, 5:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Quanto tempo dura o namora da Thati Azevedo

Jan 27, 7:33 PMDec 31, 7:33 PM

00

OptionProbability

1º trimestre 2026

2º trimestre 2026

3º trimestre 2026

4º trimestre 2026

25

25

25

25

Is La Griffe du Lion funny?

Aug 26, 5:05 PM

00

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