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Major internet outage due to undersea cables breaking by end of 2026?

Aug 3, 12:14 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

38.34%chance

6024789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5786

1723

Which UFC fighters will be champion at the end of 2026?

Dec 23, 4:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2223092

OptionProbability

Carlos Ulberg

Islam Makhachev

Petr Yan

Tom Aspinall

Joshua Van

Alexandre Pantoja

Ilia Topuria

Alexander Volkanovski

Movsar Evloev

Merab Dvalishvili

Alex Pereira

Cyril Gane

Shavkhat Rakhmonov

Arman Tsarukyan

Umar Nurmagomedov

Jiri Prochazka

Nassourdine Imavov

Magomed Ankalaev

Diego Lopes

Ian Garry

Khamzat Chimaev

Max Holloway

Paddy Pimblett

Dricus Du Plessis

Kamaru Usman

Sean O’Malley

Manel Kape

Carlos Prates

Jean Silva

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Jack Della Maddalena

Tatsuro Taira

Anthony Hernandez

Lerone Muphy

Azamat Murzakanov

74

62

57

42

42

38

35

35

35

35

30

27

27

25

25

22

22

21

21

18

16

14

13

12

12

11

10

9

9

8

4

4

3

3

2

Will any major urban areas be rendered uninhabitable due to wet bulb temperatures by 2050?

May 30, 1:05 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

26.61%chance

3519502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14866

7407

Will San Francisco put a ‘Reopen the Great Highway / Close Sunset Dunes Park’ measure on a 2026 ballot?

Jan 8, 2:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

278163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11170

7619

Will the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?

Jul 4, 4:48 PMDec 31, 12:57 PM

18.74%chance

41826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7692

5323

Pourrait il avoir un attentat au USA pendant la coupe du monde 2026?

Jun 19, 1:47 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

20.7%chance

91361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1957

511

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

Aug 8, 5:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

8844

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4652

3621

Will I think by 2030 that substantial quantities of TSMC chip fabs were destroyed due to China invading Taiwan

Dec 15, 6:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32%chance

24591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

819

Le coupe du monde ne sera pas à Mexique

Mar 7, 2:30 PMJul 19, 11:59 PM

12.89%chance

2160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

38

Will La Griffe Du Lion be doxx'd by EOY2030?

Aug 26, 5:05 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.56%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Quanto tempo dura o namora da Thati Azevedo

Jan 27, 7:33 PMDec 31, 7:33 PM

00

OptionProbability

1º trimestre 2026

2º trimestre 2026

3º trimestre 2026

4º trimestre 2026

25

25

25

25

Is La Griffe du Lion funny?

Aug 26, 5:05 PM

00

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