Elias News

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

243179874

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Yu Deng

Jack Thorne

Sam Raskin

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Tom Hutchcroft

Other

Yibo Gao

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

John Pardon

Will Sawin

Aleksandr Logunov

Maria Colombo

Noé Cruchet

Song Sun

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Miguel Walsh

Igor Rodnianski

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Hannah Larson

Justin Fields

Frederick Manners

Yuansi Chen

Javier Fresan

yunqing tang

Vincent Tassion

Will Elon Musk reject Darwinian Evolution before January 1, 2026?

Dec 3, 7:51 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

2.75%chance

5715232

OptionVotes

YES

5952

168

Boston Bruins (NHL)

Oct 27, 9:32 AMApr 20, 9:20 PM

1011833

OptionProbability

David Pastrnak finish as leading goal scorer for the Bruins in 2024-25

Cole Koepke plays 35 games with Bruins in 2024-25

Mark Kastelic plays 50+ games with Bruins in 2024-25

Bruins 10+ overtime losses in 2024-25

Bruins in Stanley Cup series by 2030

Bruins change logo by 2040

David Pastrnak 50+ goals AND 100 points in 2024-25

David Pastrnak 10+ power play goals in 2024-25

Charlie McAvoy 12+ goals in 2024-25

Charlie McAvoy 40+ assists in 2024-25

Brad Marchand 70+ points in 2024-25

Brad Marchand 60+ penalty minutes in 2024-25

Hampus Lindholm 70+ games plays with Bruins in 2024-25

Elias Lindholm finish as a point per game player in 2024-25

Bruins finish 2024-25 with 100 points

Bruins make it to 2024-25 Conference Finals (round 3 of NHL playoffs)

100

Melania’s hat will become a trend

Jan 20, 7:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.81%chance

238654

OptionVotes

YES

2733

366

Will Manifold consider the 2020 election “free and fair” at the end of 2025?

Jan 20, 7:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

91.54%chance

347875

OptionVotes

YES

3290

304

TRUE or FALSE: “Masturbation is good for you”

Dec 14, 8:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.14%chance

254183

OptionVotes

YES

4311

2277

In "A Song of Ice and Fire", what is Septa Lemore's true identity?

May 7, 6:07 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

4724

OptionProbability

Bellonara Otherys

Other

Just a simple septa

Ashara Dayne

Tyene Sand's mother

Malora Hightower

Wenda the White Fawn

Serra Mopatis

Lady Mellario of Norvos

Elia Martell

Lady Piper (wife of Quellon Greyjoy)

Lyanna Stark

AGREE or DISAGREE: Prediction markets need oracles that aren’t mainstream media

Dec 15, 1:30 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

45%chance

7326

OptionVotes

YES

1106

905

Will the Jewish Museum Shooter (Elias Rodriguez) be killed by capital punishment before the end of 2029?

May 23, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.35%chance

15284

OptionVotes

YES

204

Elias Rodriguez from DC shooting pleads guilty before 2026?

May 22, 8:40 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

9.95%chance

2220

OptionVotes

YES

301

Who will be the first person to climb a V18/9a+ boulder?

Apr 14, 5:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5200

OptionProbability

Elias Iagnemma

Other

Aidan Roberts

Hamish McArthur

Will Bosi

Nalle Hukkataival

Simon Lorenzi

Daniel Woods

Shawn Raboutou

Vadim Timonov

Charles Albert

Sean Bailey

Nathaniel Coleman

Nicolai Užnik

Nico Pelorson

Camille Coudert

Adam Ondra

Noah Wheeler

Jakob Schubert

TRUE/FALSE: Mainstream media is basically accurate.

Dec 27, 4:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

48.28%chance

495

OptionVotes

YES

1035

966

Elias News

Prediction markets for Elias

Prediction markets for Elias

Prediction markets for Elias

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Will Elon Musk reject Darwinian Evolution before January 1, 2026?

Boston Bruins (NHL)

Melania’s hat will become a trend

Will Manifold consider the 2020 election “free and fair” at the end of 2025?

TRUE or FALSE: “Masturbation is good for you”

In "A Song of Ice and Fire", what is Septa Lemore's true identity?

AGREE or DISAGREE: Prediction markets need oracles that aren’t mainstream media

Will the Jewish Museum Shooter (Elias Rodriguez) be killed by capital punishment before the end of 2029?

Elias Rodriguez from DC shooting pleads guilty before 2026?

Who will be the first person to climb a V18/9a+ boulder?

TRUE/FALSE: Mainstream media is basically accurate.

Latest stories