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Top stories

Cardi B Denies Touching Guard in US$24 Million Assault Trial

Authors

5

8 months ago

SF Probe Finds Ex-SFPUC Chief Charged $130,000 in Trips With Subordinate

Authors

3

9 months ago

Prediction markets for Ellis

Caroline Ellison next job

Jan 23, 8:51 PMDec 31, 8:43 PM

234341

OptionProbability

No publicly known employment by EOY 2026

Fraudster

Resolves 50% if Ellison marries SBF in 2026, otherwise, resolves to coinflip

A frontier AI lab (according to @Bayesian if ambiguous)

An organization that is mostly funded by charitable donations

volunteering / unpaid-only role

Big Tech

Academia

Starts a for-profit company

Starts a non-profit company

Prison guard

Manifold employee

Announces she is going to be a professional fraudster/scammer

58

50

50

18

15

14

13

5

5

5

3

3

1

Who will be the MLB National League MVP for the 2026 season

Apr 10, 8:12 PMNov 15, 11:59 PM

133620

OptionProbability

Shohei Ohtani

Kyle Schwarber

Ronald Acuña Jr.

Other

Corbin Carroll

Juan Soto

Andy Pages

Rafael Devers

Paul Skenes

Elly De La Cruz

Francisco Lindor

58

10

7

7

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

Who will be Italy's next Prime Minister?

Feb 22, 12:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

262664

OptionProbability

Giorgia Meloni

Other

Silvia Salis

Elly Schlein

Angelo Bonelli

Nicola Fratoianni

Antonio Decaro

Roberto Fico

Paolo Gentiloni

Michele Boldrin

Maurizio Landini

Matteo Salvini

Antonio Tajani

Mario Draghi

Stefano Bonaccini

Giuseppe Conte

Vincenzo De Luca

Matteo Renzi

Carlo Calenda

Roberto Vannacci

Stefano Bandecchi

Luca Zaia

Beppe Sala

28

17

9

8

6

6

5

5

5

4

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

There is between the Earth and Mars a china teapot revolving in an elliptical orbit

Apr 5, 7:45 PMApr 5, 8:59 PM

62157

OptionProbability

NO

YES

151

96

Will Caroline Ellison resume posting on Tumblr when she is released from prison?

Nov 1, 5:47 PMNov 8, 7:59 AM

29.22%chance

151328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

642

Will Caroline Ellison be arrested before 2028?

Dec 27, 5:11 PMDec 31, 5:10 PM

7.57%chance

81153

OptionVotes

YES

NO

393

175

Will Caroline Ellison serve the full 24 months in prison?

Sep 24, 8:38 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

1.08%chance

91073

OptionVotes

YES

NO

956

10

Who will be Italy's next prime minister after Giorgia Meloni?

Jan 1, 3:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3320

OptionProbability

Giuseppe Conte

Other

Elly Schlein

Antonio Tajani

Matteo Salvini

Carlo Calenda

Matteo Renzi

Angelo Bonelli

Nicola Fratoianni

Silvia Salis

Luca Zaia

Antonio Decaro

Paolo Gentiloni

24

23

20

6

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

2

Who will be the leader of the Green Party of England and Wales going into the next general election?

Apr 14, 10:54 AMAug 15, 10:50 AM

11216

OptionProbability

Zack Polanski

Ellie Chowns

Rachel Millward

Mothin Ali

Adrian Ramsey

80

24

24

24

17

Will Larry Ellison be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Mar 10, 12:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.56%chance

4196

OptionVotes

YES

NO

306

70

Will I meet Caroline Ellison in 2026?

Dec 28, 1:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.52%chance

7146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

171

59

Will Larry Ellison die of natural causes?

Jan 19, 1:21 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

91.8%chance

3126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

203

55

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