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Prediction markets for Emme

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

1.83%chance

9534412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7356

561

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.01%chance

334958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3199

836

Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?

May 12, 1:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

11.62%chance

243987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

930

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

4.49%chance

233209

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2667

331

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.25%chance

131372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

519

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

5.15%chance

8470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

429

23

Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?

Jan 25, 6:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.54%chance

16332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

947

Will a streaming series not from HBO win Best Drama Series at the 2026 Emmys?

Dec 25, 5:18 PMSep 15, 3:59 AM

18.43%chance

7260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

Emmanuel Macron Stock (Permanent)

Mar 27, 6:59 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

11192

OptionProbability

NO

YES

210

209

Will Emmaline Atherton (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.4%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

113

Will Michael Trazzi and Emmanuel Macron get to meet by EOY2028?

Feb 17, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.61%chance

5121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

Will "What I did in the hedonium shockwave, by Emma..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 11, 8:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

997

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