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Prediction markets for Emme

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

8.01%chance

9431141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2125

760

Will Emmanuel Macron resign as President of France before the end of 2025?

Oct 6, 7:28 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

4.19%chance

458437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4779

209

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.53%chance

293929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

875

Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?

May 12, 1:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

14.53%chance

233908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1028

967

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

10.44%chance

211904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1380

425

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

121122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Emmanuel Macron resigns as French President before EOY 2025

Sep 9, 2:24 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

4.43%chance

181000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

465

22

Will Emmanuel Macron publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

25.06%chance

12646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

324

205

Will Emma Watson show genuine respect and gratitude to J.K. Rowling by EOY 2025?

Oct 6, 11:54 AMDec 31, 12:00 AM

18.55%chance

8339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

48

Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?

Jan 25, 6:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.54%chance

16332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

947

Will Emmanuella Asabor (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.91%chance

5179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

112

Is Emmett Shear the interim ex-CEO of OpenAI?

Nov 24, 11:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.02%chance

377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

40

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