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Prediction markets for Emme

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.74%chance

9431761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4066

649

Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?

May 12, 1:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

13.38%chance

243964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

953

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.53%chance

303949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

875

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

8.96%chance

212084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

406

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

121122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?

Jan 25, 6:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.54%chance

16332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

947

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

15%chance

8270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will a primarily AI-generated work be nominated for a major entertainment award (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) in 2026?

Dec 21, 9:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.78%chance

6208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

37

Emmanuel Macron Stock (Permanent)

Mar 27, 6:59 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

11192

OptionProbability

NO

YES

210

209

Will a Chick-fil-A streaming app original production be nominated for an Emmy or Oscar?

Aug 22, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.77%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

35

Will Michael Trazzi and Emmanuel Macron get to meet by EOY2028?

Feb 17, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.61%chance

5121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

Will a streaming series not from HBO win Best Drama Series at the 2026 Emmys?

Dec 25, 5:18 PMSep 15, 3:59 AM

73.27%chance

386

OptionVotes

NO

YES

166

60

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