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Prediction markets for Emme

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.74%chance

9431761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4066

649

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

3.02%chance

324956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3197

836

Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?

May 12, 1:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

13.38%chance

243964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

953

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

8.96%chance

212084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1560

406

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

121122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Will Emmanuel Macron publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.76%chance

12700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

192

Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?

Jan 25, 6:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.54%chance

16332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

947

Will Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?

Aug 24, 7:17 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

15%chance

8270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

238

42

Will a primarily AI-generated work be nominated for a major entertainment award (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony) in 2026?

Dec 21, 9:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.78%chance

6208

OptionVotes

YES

NO

274

37

Emmanuel Macron Stock (Permanent)

Mar 27, 6:59 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

11192

OptionProbability

NO

YES

210

209

Will Emmanuella Asabor (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.91%chance

5179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

112

Will Emmaline Atherton (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.4%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

113

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