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Prediction markets for Emme

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3.1%chance

8225584

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4756

624

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.53%chance

293929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2190

875

2025 Emmy for best drama?

Jul 17, 3:25 AMSep 16, 12:59 AM

93826

OptionProbability

Severance

The Pitt

The White Lotus

Andor

Slow Horses

The Last of Us

The Diplomat

Paradise

66

27

3

2

1

1

1

1

Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?

May 12, 1:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

14.81%chance

223794

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1009

971

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

121122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

6.28%chance

16814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

386

26

Will Emmanuel Macron publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.79%chance

9374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

276

209

Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?

Jan 25, 6:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.54%chance

16332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

947

P(Doom) - Emmett Shear

Mar 31, 12:35 AMDec 2, 7:59 AM

7223

Will a Chick-fil-A streaming app original production be nominated for an Emmy or Oscar?

Aug 22, 4:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.77%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

288

35

Will Emmaline Atherton (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.4%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

113

Will Michael Trazzi and Emmanuel Macron get to meet by EOY2028?

Feb 17, 7:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.39%chance

355

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

65

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