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Prediction markets for Emme

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Mar 25, 11:43 AMDec 31, 12:00 PM

4.1%chance

9934619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3768

661

Will Emmanuel Macron change the French constitution to be able to run for a third term in a row?

Oct 19, 8:33 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.87%chance

355108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3349

832

Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?

May 12, 1:59 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

11.62%chance

243987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1279

930

Will Emmanuel Macron resign before the end of his term?

Dec 2, 6:45 PMJun 1, 9:59 PM

5.35%chance

233525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2333

348

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Mar 29, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

141487

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

502

Will Emmanuel Macron publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Mar 19, 12:52 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.39%chance

16941

OptionVotes

YES

NO

508

161

Whose P(Doom) is higher: Emmett Shear (YES) or Sam Altman (NO)?

Jan 25, 6:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.54%chance

16332

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

947

Emmanuel Macron Stock (Permanent)

Mar 27, 6:59 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

11192

OptionProbability

NO

YES

210

209

Will Emmanuella Asabor (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.91%chance

5179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

241

112

Will Emmaline Atherton (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 20, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.4%chance

5173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

113

Is Emmett Shear the interim ex-CEO of OpenAI?

Nov 24, 11:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.02%chance

377

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

40

Will "What I did in the hedonium shockwave, by Emma..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 11, 8:23 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

13.73%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1020

997

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