DeepNewz, mobile.
People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
OptionProbability
2050 or earlier
2100 or earlier
2040 or earlier
2030 or earlier
2029 or earlier
2028 or earlier
End of 2025 or earlier
End of 2026 or earlier
2027 or earlier
2024, by Election Day
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19
9
7
2
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs
It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"
By default, the generated videos will be watermarked
A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space
A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month
OpenAI will be sued over the model
It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)
A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements
It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation
A second major version of the model has been released
A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet
It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes
costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50
A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show
It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website
It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names
Video will include sound
A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views
It will be jailbroken to make a porn video
It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription
it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country
A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views
At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header
Sora will be part of GPT model
It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)
Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored
There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives
It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
It will be the SOTA for text to video
It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo
It has been renamed
It will be free to use
A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month
The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian
It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)
The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather
A third major version of the model has been released
OpenAI will release the number of model parameters
Full description of model architecture will be public
Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization
The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes
A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market
OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model
Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization
A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora
It was accessible to the public before May 2024
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
22945
4656
OptionVotes
YES
NO
12289
5251
OptionProbability
An Aston Martin
Aston Martin DB Series
A car also capable of driving itself
A Land Rover
A convertible car
A motorcyle
An unpowered parachute
A motorboat
Off-road vehicle
Any rover (Range, Land, Mars, moon, etc.)
Aston Martin Lagonda
A helicopter
A jet aircraft
A penis shaped car
An electric scooter (e.g. bird/lime)
A drone/quadcopter
A sailboat
A BMW
Aston Martin Valhalla
Aston Martin Valkyrie
Aston Martin Vantage
A hang glider, wingsuit, or other unpowered gliding aircraft.
A Sea-Doo/JetSki
A zipline
A glider/sailplane
An excavator
A combustion scooter (e.g. vespa)
A taxi cab
An EMS vehicle (police car, ambulance, fire truck)
A kidnapper van
A litter/sedan chair
A race car specifically designed for racing like F1 or Nascar
A train
A Pedal bicycle
A Semi-Truck
A tank
A fixed wing single-engine aircraft
A tilt-rotor aircraft
A hydrofoil
A gyrocopter
A bus
A pair of skis
A toboggan
A hot air balloon
A golf cart
A Lada
A wheelchair
A submarine
A jetpack
A beast of burden
A Bentley
A Rolls-Royce
A vehicle integrated into footwear, such as heelys or jet boots.
A motherfucking plane full of moterfucking snakes
A spacecraft
A snowmobile
A blimp
A bulldozer
A mech
A tow truck
A Segway
A rickshaw
A chariot
piggyback ride
A Zamboni
A hyperloop capsule
A unicycle
A SpaceX Starship
A push scooter (e.g. Razor)
A Tesla
House with balloons attached to it (like the movie Up)
A pedal-powered duck boat
Cybertruck
A hoverboard
A trike
A Zorb
The Oscar Mayer Wienermobile
A penny-farthing
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OptionVotes
YES
NO
9194
4582
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
It is not possible to multitask
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
21
19
12
6
4
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3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
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1
1
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1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
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0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Sexism and racism, among other forms of prejudice, are responsible for worse health outcomes, and it’s not overly dramatic for people to treat those issues as public health/safety concerns.
Prediction markets are good
[*] ...and things will improve in the future
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
Authoritarian populism is bad actually
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
Most organized religion are false
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Prolonged school closures because of COVID were socially devastating.
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
Nuclear power is by far the best solution to climate change. [N]
Pineapple pizza tastes good
The Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics
Humans have a responsibility to figure out what if anything we can do about wildlife suffering.
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
First-past-the-post electoral systems are not merely flawed but outright less democratic than proportional or preferential alternatives
Liberal-democracy is good actually
Peeing in the shower is good and everyone should do it
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
We need a bigger welfare state than we have now.
Many amphetamines and psychedelics have tremendous therapeutic value when guided by an established practitioner.
The proliferation of microplastics will be viewed as more harmful to the environment than burning fossil fuels, in the long term
American agents are in the highest positions in government for more than half the world.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
We should give every American food stamps, in a fixed dollar amount, with no means testing or work requirements or disqualification for criminal convictions.
Metaculus will take over Manifold in more serious topics, and Manifold will be known as the "unserious" prediction market site
Given what we know about the social and health effects of being fired, even if abolishing at will employment has efficiency costs it is likely worth it.
The overall state of the world is pretty good... [*]
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
Dreams analysis is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.
Mobile UX will be a key explaining factor in explaining the stories of Manifold and Metaculus.
If a developed nation moves from democratic to authoritarian government today, it should be expected to end up poorer, weaker, sicker, and stupider.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
The United States doesn't need a strong third party.
Being a billionaire is morally wrong.
Racial Colorblindness is the only way to defeat racism
People will look back on using animal products as a moral disgrace on the level of chattel slavery.
There's a reasonable chance of a militant green/communist movement that gains popular support in the coming decade.
Eating meat is morally wrong in most cases.
Political libertarianism
You should bet NO on this option
The Windows kernel is better than Linux; it’s just all the bloat piled on top that makes it worse
[N], and to the extent climate activists are promoting other kinds of solutions, they are actively making the situation worse by diverting attention and resources from nuclear power.
White people are the least racist of any racial group
Technology is not making our lives easier or more fulfilling.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
God is evil
A sandwich is a type of hot dog
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Astrology is a legitimate means of gaining personal insight.
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development.
Mereological nihilism (composite objects don't exist)
It's acceptable for our systems of punishment to be retributive in part
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
China not having real democracy does more good than harm
Dentistry is mostly wasted effort.
Moral Hazard isn’t real, and all the purported instances of it can be chalked up to coincidence or confounding variables
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon
Governments should not support parents for having children that they cannot take care of
Mass surveillance (security cameras everywhere) has more positives than negatives
Donald Trump would have been a better president than Joe Biden
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
Future generations will say that on balance the world reacted appropriately after learning that fossil fuels cause climate change. That the balance between addressing the problem and slowing economies was just about right.
Humans don't have free will.
The next American moon landing will be faked
AI art is better than human art
Communism just wasn't implemented well, next time it will work
The human race should voluntarily choose to go extinct via nonviolent means (antinatalism).
The first American moon landing was faked
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
Astrology is actually true.
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OptionProbability
Both engines ingested birds
The spoilers were not working
Electrical failure compromised multiple redundant systems
The aircraft didn’t slow down in the runway because it was trying to take off again
Hydraulic failure compromised multiple redundant systems
The landing gear was not working
The flaps were not working
The pilot shut down the wrong engine
Landing was justifiably rushed due to fire or unbreathable air in the cabin
86
44
43
41
38
29
24
17
17
OptionProbability
Registered nurses
Plumbing, electrical, and carpentry work [47-3000]
Athletes and sports competitors
Health specialties teachers, postsecondary
Clinical and counseling psychologists
Doctors
Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers
Electricians
Dentists, general
Computer programmers
Data Scientist
Software developers
Video producer
Physical Therapists
Teachers
Priest/Imam/Spiritual guide
Heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers
Real estate sales agents
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63
62
59
56
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48
46
40
34
OptionProbability
Robots
Some As of Early 2024 Not Even Published Yet Architecture as Revolutionary as Transformers was in 2017
Synthetic Biology / Genetic Engineering: For example, developing new vaccines, engineering proteins for sustainable fabric production, developing cell-cultured meats, plant-based meat alternatives, and engineering human immune cells.
Quantum Computing
82
67
58
17
OptionProbability
AI/Machine learning specialist
DevOps specialist
Blockchain engineer
Engineer, site reliability
Cloud infrastructure engineer
Security professional
Hardware Engineer
Data Scientist
Embedded developer
AI safety expert
38
13
9
6
6
6
6
6
6
6