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Eri News

Erin Stock (Permanent)

Nov 5, 8:16 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

44293239

OptionProbability

YES

NO

2090

1762

Eric Adams switches party affiliation from Democrat before January 1, 2026

Dec 4, 3:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

60.24%chance

2510605

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1231

812

Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2025?

Jan 5, 3:25 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

339529

OptionProbability

New Glenn

H3

Long March 5

Zhuque 2

LVM3

Falcon Heavy

Nuri

Tianlong 3

Proton M

Zhuque 3

Ariane 64

Pallas 1

Starship

Chollima 1

Vikram 1

RFA One

Kairos

Qased

Ceres-2

Kinetica-2

Long March 12A

Isar Spectrum

Rocket Lab Neutron

Nebula-1

Skyrora XL

Orbex Prime

ABL RS1

Hyperbola-3

Astra Rocket 4

Stoke Space Nova

Gilmour Space Eris

Long March 10

100

100

100

100

87

85

66

44

38

37

36

36

35

35

35

31

31

27

26

24

22

17

13

13

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

4

Levy Rozman (Gotham Chess) or Eric Rosen becomes a GM by 2035

Jan 24, 10:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.01%chance

423064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

968

Eric Adams no longer identifies as a Democrat by December 31, 2025

Apr 12, 8:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67%chance

232093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

702

In what order will humans walk on these solar system bodies?

Apr 19, 1:14 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

141026

OptionProbability

Phobos

Deimos

Ceres

Vesta

Europa

Callisto

Ganymede

Titan

Pallas

Enceladus

Iapetus

Tethys

Miranda

Triton

Mercury

Pluto

Charon

Titania

Io

Venus

Eris

64

57

55

52

49

47

44

43

34

34

27

27

27

27

25

21

21

18

16

13

5

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

7729

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None (resolves if none have reached orbit by question end - EOY 2035)

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

61

18

7

6

5

4

Will there be HD real images (e.g. telescope, probe) of the dwarf planet Eris by 2030?

Jan 9, 3:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

12.5%chance

18649

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

886

Will there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)

Feb 13, 7:22 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

48.11%chance

10500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

963

Will a crossing of the Bab-el-Mandeb, between Yemen and Djibouti or Eritrea, have started construction by 2040?

Jul 4, 8:28 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

21.22%chance

13326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1122

944

Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 5:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64%chance

16307

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1060

959

Will the Eritrean government collapse before or within 5 years of Isaias Afwerki's death?

May 26, 3:54 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.04%chance

2110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

904

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