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Prediction markets for Eric

Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?

Aug 9, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

229023

OptionProbability

Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month

Starliner-1 flies in 2026

NASA pays Boeing to fly Starliner with cargo in 2025

All of the above

100

15

0

0

Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship?

Oct 29, 6:43 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

134185

OptionProbability

In-flight Raptor re-light by Q2 2025

Re-fly a Super Heavy first stage by Q2 2026

Long-duration flight test before 2027

Uncrewed lunar landing before Q3 2027

Crewed moon landing before September 2028

Return a Starship to terra firma before 2026

HLS prop-transfer demo before 2026

100

100

58

35

16

0

0

Levy Rozman (Gotham Chess) or Eric Rosen becomes a GM by 2035

Jan 24, 10:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.21%chance

433114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

825

Will Trump pardon or grant clemency to Eric Adams?

Jan 17, 3:30 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

12.59%chance

5603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

442

Will there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)

Feb 13, 7:22 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

50.64%chance

11550

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

Will Eric Drexler ever win a Nobel Prize?

Mar 20, 10:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.17%chance

6311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

346

111

Will Eric Rosen join Manifold before the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.24%chance

8107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

157

Will the Eric Andre Show come back for a Season 7 by 2027?

Apr 2, 10:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.39%chance

326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

115

If Eric Adams is elected mayor of New York in 2025, what will the rental vacancy rate be in 2029?

May 25, 7:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

125

OptionProbability

2 - 2.9%

1 - 1.9%

Above 5%

Below 1%

3 - 3.9%

4 - 5%

25

23

19

11

11

11

Eric switches academic subjects by eoy

Jan 13, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Eric can solve a binary search usaco question by end of semester

Jan 13, 11:54 PMJan 1, 12:59 AM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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