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Eric News

Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?

Aug 9, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

229273

OptionProbability

Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month

Starliner-1 flies in 2026

NASA pays Boeing to fly Starliner with cargo in 2025

All of the above

100

13

0

0

Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship?

Oct 29, 6:43 AMSep 2, 6:59 AM

144330

OptionProbability

In-flight Raptor re-light by Q2 2025

Re-fly a Super Heavy first stage by Q2 2026

Long-duration flight test before 2027

Uncrewed lunar landing before Q3 2027

Crewed moon landing before September 2028

Return a Starship to terra firma before 2026

HLS prop-transfer demo before 2026

100

100

51

19

13

0

0

Levy Rozman (Gotham Chess) or Eric Rosen becomes a GM by 2035

Jan 24, 10:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.21%chance

433114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

825

Will there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)

Feb 13, 7:22 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

57.49%chance

11700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1163

860

Will Trump pardon or grant clemency to Eric Adams?

Jan 17, 3:30 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

12.59%chance

5603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?

Nov 2, 4:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

32.46%chance

14587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

442

Will Eric Drexler ever win a Nobel Prize?

Mar 20, 10:27 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.17%chance

6311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

346

111

Will Eric Swalwell be elected the next Governor of California?

Feb 12, 8:22 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

10308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114

82

Will Eric Rosen join Manifold before the end of 2026?

Jan 15, 2:45 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.24%chance

8107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

157

Will Eric Zhu of aviato (@ericzhu105) get someone pregnant by EOY2030?

Oct 19, 2:10 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.71%chance

170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Will the Eric Andre Show come back for a Season 7 by 2027?

Apr 2, 10:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.39%chance

326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

115

Eric switches academic subjects by eoy

Jan 13, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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