Eric Larchevêque News

Who will be the President of the United States of America at some point in their life?

Mar 27, 1:20 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM

379132350

OptionProbability

J. D. Vance

Gavin Newsom

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Josh Hawley

Gretchen Whitmer

Marco Rubio

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Mark Kelly

KRANTZ (the abstract idea that evolves into a decentralized superintelligence, not the user)

Glenn Youngkin

J. B. Pritzker

Andy Beshear

Jon Ossoff

Ron DeSantis

Elise Stefanik

Wes Moore

Mark Cuban

Nikki Haley

Jeff Jackson

Stephen Miller

Vivek Ramaswamy

Cory Booker

Raphael Warnock

Gina Raimondo

Ro Khanna

Chris Murphy

Tammy Duckworth

Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Chris Sununu

Katie Hobbs

Tim Scott

Brian Kemp

Kristi Noem

Beto O'Rourke

John Fetterman

Tom Cotton

Brian Schatz

Joni Ernst

Michael Bennet

Tammy Baldwin

Kevin Stitt

Spencer Cox

Tate Reeves

Josh Green

Tina Kotek

Ted Cruz

Joe Rogan

Jay Inslee

Deval Patrick

Eric Swalwell

Wayne Messam

Jared Polis

Kirsten Gillibrand

Julian Castro

Dean Phillips

Katie Britt

Laphonza Butler

Eric Schmitt

Mike Lee

Catherine Cortez Masto

Chris Coons

Tim Kaine

Lisa Murkowski

Ruben Gallego

Donald Trump Jr.

Erika Kirk

Kamala Harris

James Donaldson (MrBeast)

Tucker Carlson

Will Hurd

Tulsi Gabbard

Dan Crenshaw

Robert F. Kennedy Jr

Amy Klobuchar

Andrew Yang

Stephen Colbert

Stephen Curry

Markwayne Mullin

Rand Paul

Joe Manchin

Maura Healey

Ivanka Trump

David Hogg

Dwayne Johnson (The Rock)

Taylor Swift

Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny)

Matt Gaetz

Marianne Williamson

Ezra Klein

Mark Zuckerberg

Mike Pence

Jon Stewart

DUPLICATE

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

Scott Alexander

Sam Altman

Zendaya

Michelle Obama

Kanye West

Mitt Romney

Sarah Palin

Ben Shapiro

Bernie Sanders

Hillary Clinton

Tim Walz

Al Gore

Elon Musk (Natural-born-citizen clause repealed/bypassed)

Krantz (the user @Krantz)

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

Jan 2, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

37978956

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Other

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Larry Ellison

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Mark Zuckerberg

Bernard Arnault

Sergey Brin

Satoshi Nakamoto

Donald Trump

Michael Saylor

Bill Gates

Warren Buffett

Steve Ballmer

Gautam Adani

Mukesh Ambani

An AGI

Brian Armstrong

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

Tim Draper

Jack Dorsey

Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

@Mira

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Amancio Ortega

Carlos Slim Helu

Vitalik Buterin

Eric Schmidt

Masayoshi Son

Dave Tepper

Ken Griffin

Eduardo Saverin

Morris Chang

Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?

Jul 4, 12:46 AMJul 11, 8:59 PM

8459042

OptionProbability

Eric Swalwell

Matt Mahan

Tom Steyer

Katie Porter

Other

Antonio Villaraigosa

Steve Hilton

Xavier Becerra

Eleni Kounalakis

Toni Atkins

Tony Thurmond

Betty Yee

Rob Bonta

Rick Caruso

Kamala Harris

Ethan Agarwal

Alex Padilla

Jon Slavet

Jesse Perez

Michael L. Younger

Ian Calderon

Who will be the next president of France?

Feb 6, 11:00 PMMay 31, 9:59 PM

13933983

OptionProbability

Jordan Bardella

Édouard Philippe

Gabriel Attal

Other

Marine Le Pen

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

Raphaël Glucksmann

Gérald Darmanin

Olivier Faure

Dominique de Villepin

Francois Ruffin

Marine Tondelier

Gérard Larcher

Christine Lagarde

Michel Barnier

Emmanuel Macron

Xavier Bertrand

Laurent Wauquiez

David Lisnard

Bruno Le Maire

Carole Delga

Bernard Cazeneuve

Marion Maréchal

Eric Zemmour

Ségolène Royal

Nicolas Sarkozy

François Hollande

Alain Coulombel

Cécile Duflot

Eva Joly

Christiane Taubira

François-Xavier Bellamy

Manon Aubry

Marie Toussaint

Nathalie Arthaud

Philippe Poutou

Who will be the Republican nominee for Vice President in 2028?

Jul 18, 10:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4212457

OptionProbability

Other

Donald Trump Jr.

Marco Rubio

J.D. Vance

Vivek Ramaswamy

Donald Trump

Tim Scott

Doug Burgum

Nikki Haley

Glenn Youngkin

Eric Trump

Ivanka Trump

Ron DeSantis

Greg Abbott

Tucker Carlson

Which players will be part of Germany's squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jul 6, 11:21 AMJun 11, 9:59 PM

265671

OptionProbability

Jamal Musiala

Florian Wirtz

Joshua Kimmich

Kai Havertz

Lennart Karl

Alexander Nübel

Niclas Füllkrug

Leroy Sané

Serge Gnabry

Nico Schlotterbeck

Nick Woltemade

Pascal Groß

Marc-André ter Stegen

Robert Andrich

Karim Adeyemi

Aleksandar Pavlovic

Robin Gosens

Noah Atubolu

David Raum

Malick Thiaw

Finn Dahmen

Angelo Stiller

Maximilian Mittelstädt

Felix Nmecha

Nathaniel Brown

Jamie Leweling

Jonathan Burkardt

Maximilian Beier

Jonas Urbig

Deniz Undav

Tim Kleindienst

Tom Bischof

Matthias Ginter

Thilo Kehrer

Yann Bisseck

Josha Vagnoman

Chris Führich

Brajan Gruda

Jonas Hofmann

Assan Ouédraogo

Stefan Ortega

Anton Stach

Luca Netz

Nadiem Amiri

Rocco Reitz

Armel Bella-Kotchap

Max Finkgräfe

Youssoufa Moukoko

Eric Martel

Niklas Beste

Finn Jeltsch

Frans Krätzig

Diant Ramaj

Robin Zentner

Janis Blaswich

Marius Wolf

Grischa Prömel

Marvin Schwäbe

Nelson Weiper

Nicolas Kühn

Jan Thielmann

Bright Arrey-Mbi

Kevin Behrens

Paul Wanner

Kennet Eichhorn

Paris Brunner

Marvin Ducksch

Bence Dardai

Fabian Reese

Who will be elected governor of California in 2026?

Nov 18, 3:19 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

182980

OptionProbability

Eric Swalwell

Matt Mahan

Tom Steyer

Katie Porter

Other

Xavier Beccera

Kamala Harris

Stephen Cloobeck

Steve Hilton

Li'l Petey

Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

Dec 14, 5:15 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

122726

OptionProbability

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Nellie Ohr – Former CIA Employee and Independent Contractor for Fusion GPS

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

100

Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?

Nov 22, 9:50 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

262614

OptionProbability

Other

[None - Position will cease to exist]

Mira Murati

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Greg Brockman

Bret Taylor

Larry Summers

Adam D'Angelo

Andrej Karpathy

Eric Schmidt

Paul Graham

Peter Thiel

Wojciech Zaremba

Ben Horowitz

Jessica Livingston

Marc Benioff

Sheryl Sandberg

Tim Cook

John Doerr

Reed Hastings

Fei Fei Lee

Alexander Wang

George Hotz

Brad Lightcap

Bob Mcgrew

Peter Welinder

Jason Kwon

Mark Chen

Helen Toner

Ilya Sutskever

Emmett Shear

Dario Amodei

Satya Nadela

Jeff Bezos

Demis Hassabis

Robin Li

Clément Delangue

Lila Ibrahim

Alex Karp

Reid Hoffman

Raquel Urtasun

Marc Andreessen

Aidan Gomez

Sandra Rivera

Gary Marcus

Jaime Teevan

Sundar Pichai

Jack Clark

Anna Makanju

Shane Legg

Andrew Ng

Pushmeet Kohli

Yann LeCun

Mark Zuckerberg

Yoshua Bengio

Hinton

Marissa Mayer

Spencer Rascoff

Garry Tan

Who will finish top 2 in the California gubernatorial primary election?

Dec 6, 7:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4751

OptionProbability

Eric Swalwell(D)

Matt Mahan

Tom Steyer(D)

Steve Hilton(R)

Chad Bianco(R)

Rick Caruso(D)

Katie Porter(D)

Xavier Becerra(D)

Butch Ware(G)

Who will win the special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene?

Feb 5, 12:04 AMMar 6, 11:59 PM

5609

OptionProbability

Clayton Fuller (R)

Jim Davis(D)

Shawn Harris (D)

Colton Moore(R)

Jonathan Hobbs (D)

Nicky Lama(R)

Star Black (R)

Reagan Box (R)

Beau Brown (R)

Marty Brown(R)

Jared Craig(R)

Eric Cunningham (R)

Tom Gray (R)

Larry Hilley (R)

Trey Kelly(R)

Rob Ruszkowski(Independent)

Brian Stover(R)

Megan Strickland(R)

Jim Tully (R)

Jennifer Turnipseed(R)

Andrew Underwood (L)

Democratic nominee for the 2026 New York gubernatorial election

Dec 9, 9:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9470

OptionProbability

Kathy Hochul

Antonio Delgado

Ritchie Torres

Alvin Bragg

Andrew Cuomo

Eric Gonzalez

Letitia James

Jumaane Williams

AOC

Other

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Who will be the President of the United States of America at some point in their life?

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

Who will become the next governor of California after Gavin Newsom?

Who will be the next president of France?

Who will be the Republican nominee for Vice President in 2028?

Which players will be part of Germany's squad for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Who will be elected governor of California in 2026?

Which people on the Kash Patel list of "Members of the Executive Branch Deep State" from his book will be investigated?

Who will be the next CEO of OpenAI, after Sam Altman?

Who will finish top 2 in the California gubernatorial primary election?

Who will win the special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene?

Democratic nominee for the 2026 New York gubernatorial election

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