Erik Thedéen News

Riksbank Holds at 2% as Bostic Still Expects One 2025 Fed Cut

9 months ago

Who will win the NY-12 Congressional District (add answers!)

Sep 6, 7:12 PMNov 6, 11:59 PM

3214547

OptionProbability

Micah Lasher

Alex Bores

Jack Schlossberg

George Conway

Liam Elkind

Erik Bottcher

Keith Powers

Cameron Kasky

Will SpaceX reach a valuation of $1 trillion by 2035?

Nov 25, 2:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

94.97%chance

153959

OptionVotes

YES

4521

637

Which of the following players will win at least 1 WSOP bracelet between 2025 and 2030 (inclusive)?

Jun 3, 1:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32925

OptionProbability

Nick Schulman

Shaun Deeb

Martin Kabrhel

Jeremy Ausmus

Phil Hellmuth

Josh Arieh

Alex Foxen

Daniel Negreanu

Stephen Chidwick

Justin Saliba

Chance Kornuth

Scott Seiver

Phil Ivey

Michael Moncek

Alex Livingston

Chris Brewer

Nacho Barbero

Eric Wasserson

Ren Lin

Matt Glantz

Fedor Holz

Ben Heath

Joe Cada

Koray Aldemir

Dario Sammartino

Ben Lamb

Nick Petrangelo

Isaac Haxton

Erik Seidel

Jonathan Tamayo

100

Will AR/VR headset use be ubiquitous on commercial airlines by 2030?

Feb 3, 8:08 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.33%chance

312618

OptionVotes

YES

1991

460

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045

Jan 28, 7:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

58.63%chance

19627

OptionVotes

YES

1026

947

🏅2026 NASCAR Head-to-Head (H2H) Driver Markets (LIVE)

Jan 22, 12:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2364

OptionProbability

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH Ryan Blaney?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chris Buescher OUT FINISH Ty Gibbs?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will William Byron OUT FINISH Ryan Blaney?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Joey Logano?

03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?

03/01 (Austin) - Will Shane van Gisbergen OUT FINISH A. J. Allmendinger?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Ryan Preece OUT FINISH Christopher Bell?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Ross Chastain OUT FINISH Austin Cindric?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Austin Cindric?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Noah Gragson OUT FINISH Austin Dillon?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Kyle Busch) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Chase Briscoe)?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Joey Logano) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Chase Elliott)?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Austin Dillon) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Kyle Larson)?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' ?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' ?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 9 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 9 Outside' ?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Austin Dillon) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Corey LaJoie)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' (John Hunter Nemechek) OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' (Brad Keselowski)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' (Ryan Blaney) OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' (William Byron)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' (Cole Custer) OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' (Cody Ware)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 9 Inside' (AJ Allmendinger) OUT FINISH 'Row 9 Outside' (Ross Chastain)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 10 Inside' (Shane van Gisbergen) OUT FINISH 'Row 10 Outside' (Daniel Suarez)?

02/22 (Autotrader 400) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

03/22 (Darlington) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Joey Logano?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Tyler ReddickOUT FINISH Ricky Stenhouse?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase ElliottOUT FINISH Ricky Stenhouse?

02/22 (Atlanta) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Brad Keselowski??

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside'?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside'?

03/29 (Cook Out 400) - Will Denny Hamlin OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

03/29 (Cook Out 400) - Will DWilliam Byron OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

11/08 (Miami) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Chris Buescher?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Tyler Reddick OUT FINISH Ty Gibbs?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH William Byron?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Chase Elliott OUT FINISH Austin Dillon?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Chase Elliott?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH Tyler Reddick?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH Joey Logano?

03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Joey Logano OUT FINISH William Byron?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Bubba Wallace OUT FINISH Ross Chastain?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Austin Cindric OUT FINISH Ross Chastain?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Kyle Larson OUT FINISH William Byron?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Ty Gibbs OUT FINISH Chase Briscoe?

02/04 (Bowman Gray Clash) - Will Christopher Bell OUT FINISH Denny Hamlin?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Ryan Blaney) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Carson Hocevar)?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' ?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 8 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 8 Outside' ?

02/15 (Daytona 500) - Will 'Row 10 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 10 Outside' ?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Kyle Busch) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Ryan Preece)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Corey Heim) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Alex Bowman)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Chris Buescher) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Joey Logano)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 8 Inside' (Jimmie Johnson) OUT FINISH 'Row 8 Outside' (Bubba Watson)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' (Chase Briscoe) OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside' (Denny Hamlin)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 2 Inside' (Kyle Larson) OUT FINISH 'Row 2 Outside' (Chase Elliott)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 1) - Will 'Row 11 Inside' (Chandler Smith) OUT FINISH 'Row 11 Outside' (Casey Mears)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 3 Inside' (Ty Gibbs) OUT FINISH 'Row 3 Outside' (Christopher Bell)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' (Justin Allgaier) OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside' (Austin Cindric)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 5 Inside' (Zane Smith) OUT FINISH 'Row 5 Outside' (Michael McDowell)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 6 Inside' (Connor Zilisch) OUT FINISH 'Row 6 Outside' (Erik Jones)?

02/12 (Daytona Duel 2) - Will 'Row 7 Inside' (Josh Berry) OUT FINISH 'Row 7 Outside' (Carson Hocevar)?

11/08 (Miami) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

03/01 (COTA) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

03/08 (Phoenix) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

03/29 (Cook Out 400) - Will Austin Dillon OUT FINISH Kyle Larson?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 1 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 1 Outside'?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will 'Row 4 Inside' OUT FINISH 'Row 4 Outside'?

03/15 (Las Vegas) - Will Blaney OUT FINISH Reddick?

100

Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 5:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

64%chance

16307

OptionVotes

YES

1060

959

Will Erik Voorhees (founder of ShapeShift exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 12:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.57%chance

6269

OptionVotes

YES

326

104

Will Econ 102 with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg reach episode 100?

Feb 29, 2:19 PMMay 5, 2:29 PM

89.4%chance

2230

OptionVotes

YES

347

Will William Eden's kids get proper aristocratic tutoring sourced in part by Erik Hoel?

Sep 21, 11:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

120

On which flight will LandSpace's Zhuque-3 rocket first be recovered successfully?

Jan 19, 9:00 PMJan 20, 7:59 AM

250

OptionProbability

Flight 3

Flight 2

Flight 4

Flight 5

Flight 6

After Flight 6

Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet?

Sep 21, 8:41 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

57.63%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

Erik Thedéen News

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Prediction markets for Erik Thedéen

Prediction markets for Erik Thedéen

Prediction markets for Erik Thedéen

Who will win the NY-12 Congressional District (add answers!)

Will SpaceX reach a valuation of $1 trillion by 2035?

Which of the following players will win at least 1 WSOP bracelet between 2025 and 2030 (inclusive)?

Will AR/VR headset use be ubiquitous on commercial airlines by 2030?

Starlink (SpaceX) has operational internet satellites in Mars orbit by 2045

🏅2026 NASCAR Head-to-Head (H2H) Driver Markets (LIVE)

Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Erik Voorhees (founder of ShapeShift exchange) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Will Econ 102 with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg reach episode 100?

Will William Eden's kids get proper aristocratic tutoring sourced in part by Erik Hoel?

On which flight will LandSpace's Zhuque-3 rocket first be recovered successfully?

Will 2020s US productivity average over 1.8%, per Erik Brynjolfsson and Robert J Gordon's Long Bet?

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