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Erin News

    Prediction markets for Erin

    Erin Stock (Permanent)

    Nov 5, 8:16 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM
    44293258

    OptionProbability

    YES

    NO

    2070

    1794

    Who will be a UFC champion at some point?

    Mar 27, 6:07 PMSep 9, 2:29 PM
    2511144

    OptionProbability

    Merab Dvalishvili

    Belal Muhammad

    Jack Della Maddalena

    Khamzat Chimaev

    Magomed Ankalaev

    Kayla Harrison

    Arman Tsarukyan

    Movsar Evloev

    Benoît Saint Denis

    Rafael Fiziev

    Brendan Allen

    Shavkat Rakhmonov

    Arnold Allen

    Sean Brady

    Erin Blanchfield

    Maycee Barber

    Bo Nickal

    Manel Kape

    Diego Lopes

    Cory Sandhagen

    Ian Machado Garry

    Ciryl Gane

    Steve Erceg

    Aleksandar Rakić

    Tatiana Suarez

    Kai Kara-France

    Mateusz Gamrot

    Michael Chandler

    Josh Emmett

    Calvin Kattar

    Vicente Luque

    Jared Cannonier

    Johnny Walker

    Khalil Rountree Jr.

    Alexander Volkov

    Drew Dober

    Paulo Costa

    Amir Albazi

    Beneil Dariush

    Sergei Pavlovich

    Bobby Green

    Marvin Vettori

    Brian Ortega

    Mayra Bueno Silva

    Michael Page

    Yan Xiaonan

    Jailton Almeida

    Ketlen Vieira

    Curtis Blaydes

    Muhammad Mokaev

    Paul Craig

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    69

    50

    44

    42

    42

    41

    40

    35

    35

    35

    34

    32

    32

    28

    28

    28

    27

    26

    23

    22

    21

    21

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    19

    19

    19

    19

    19

    19

    17

    17

    16

    16

    16

    14

    14

    13

    12

    12

    11

    10

    9

    8

    0

    0

    🏳️‍⚧️ What will happen to trans people in Kansas as a result of the newly passed bounty hunter bill? (Add your answers)

    Jan 29, 2:04 PMDec 31, 2:04 PM
    174250

    OptionProbability

    At least one person will have their government ID confiscated or revoked, as reported on social media or news

    The bill will be vetoed by Gov. Laura Kelley or her office

    The veto will be overridden by a 2/3 majority. (Resolves N/A if no veto)

    At least one bathroom incident in Kansas will be reported on social media (eg Bluesky) or news source

    Public sanctimony. Private indulgence. One or more of the architects are found to be hypocrites and engaging in projection, and are doxed revelling in flagrante delicto in the very non-normative intimacies they seek to criminalise.

    At least one person who gets targeted by this rule will turn out to be cisgender / not trans (will N/A if nobody gets targeted)

    There are any social media or news reports of bathroom guards, inspections, or enforcement systems in Kansas in connection with gender

    The bill will be (at least temporarily) halted by courts in 2026. (Resolves N/A if bill killed before taking effect.)

    At least one bathroom incident will be reported on social media or news source, and will lead to an attempted prosecution

    At least one bathroom incident will be reported on social media or news source, and lead to an attempted prosecution, that will lead to a bounty payout or settlement

    We can find reporting that tourism in Kansas in 2026 will drop by at least 5%, and this bill is named as a potential contributor in that reporting

    91

    90

    90

    64

    62

    61

    57

    56

    51

    49

    46

    Pierre Polievre out as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada by end of year

    Jan 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    9.85%chance
    201102

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    302

    33

    Will the European Hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) become extinct in the current century?

    Mar 25, 12:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
    12.4%chance
    5317

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    783

    412

    The cyberattack on French supermarket fridges is proven to be caused by AI agents

    Oct 15, 2:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    34.38%chance
    13273

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    138

    72

    By EOY 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full movie based on the user's algorithmically observed preferences?

    Oct 13, 9:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    32.23%chance
    345

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    145

    69

    By end of 2030, will AI therapy-matching be the main intake path for new mental-health patients in a developed country?

    Oct 12, 11:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
    46%chance
    339

    OptionVotes

    NO

    YES

    120

    12

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