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Prediction markets for Evers

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

10%chance

143331308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3668

2233

Will Bitcoin ever go below $10,000 again?

Jan 20, 12:18 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

44.75%chance

186325612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1510

758

Will Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?

Jul 26, 4:22 AMJun 26, 6:59 AM

7.94%chance

398208033

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YES

NO

7364

773

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Sep 16, 9:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

75166167

OptionProbability

OpenAI

xAI

Alphabet / Google

OpenAI (after January)

OpenAI (after February)

Google (after February)

xAI (After initial Grok 3 entry)

Google (after 2.5 release)

OpenAI (May or later)

DeepSeek

Moonshot

Anthropic

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Safe Superintelligence (SSI)

Meta

Microsoft (?)

Apple (?)

Mistral

Reka AI

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

93

89

12

10

8

5

4

3

3

2

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2

Will Rick Astley ever gonna give you up?

Jan 6, 5:34 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

68.21%chance

19636758

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YES

3057

1177

Will Elon Musk ever walk on Mars?

Mar 24, 7:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.32%chance

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19036

9645

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky ever win a Nobel Prize?

Mar 20, 10:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

6.93%chance

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980

968

will human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?

Nov 7, 12:59 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

2720656

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6224

5524

Will China ever surpass US gdp?

Sep 4, 8:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.81%chance

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Will Starship fly to orbit more times before Artemis II, than SLS ever flies?

Oct 16, 3:48 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

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2652

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Will JD Vance ever be president?

Jul 22, 12:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

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Will I make IMO ever

Sep 25, 2:44 AMAug 1, 3:59 AM

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