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Justin Fields Rushes for First Jets Touchdown in Preseason Debut

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Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.82%chance

1029138455

OptionVotes

YES

344298

43497

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 4:58 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

196136756

OptionProbability

Hong Wang

Jacob Tsimerman

Other

Jack Thorne

John Pardon

Sam Raskin

Aleksandr Logunov

Yu Deng

Hannah Larson

Maksym Radziwill

Karim Adiprasito

Song Sun

Will Sawin

Miguel Walsh

Tasuki Kinjo

Junliang Shen

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Tatenda Kubalalika

Elia Bruè

Amol Aggarwal

Akhil Mathew

Ashwin Sah

Vesselin Dimitrov

Alexander Efimov

Maria Colombo

Simion Filip

Jeremy Hahn

Lisa Sauermann

Dennis Gaitsgory

(duplicate, will resolve no)

Xian-Jin Li

Yibo Gao

Mike Wolf

Joseph Palmer

A non-human (e.g. an LLM)

Jacob Braunschweig

Igor Rodnianski

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Jan 16, 3:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.44%chance

3511655

OptionVotes

YES

8352

653

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

Sep 15, 5:01 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

142982

OptionProbability

Will Sawin

Other

Alex Smith

Ewain Gwynne

Jeremy Hahn

Amol Aggarwal

Dor Minzer

Hong Wang

Marcelo Campos

Mehtaab Sawhney

Julian Sahasrabudhe

Ashwin Sah

Lisa Sauermann

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Sep 10, 3:03 PMSep 8, 3:01 PM

18.11%chance

11836

OptionVotes

YES

1104

960

Which language families will be widely academically recognized in the field of linguistics, by EOY 2035?

Apr 3, 9:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12500

OptionProbability

Dene-Yeniseian (language family that includes both Na-Dene and Yeniseian languages)

Austro-Tai (language family that includes both Austronesian and Kra-Dai languages)

Italo-Celtic (an IE subfamily that includes both Latin and a Celtic language, but no languages from other major extant IE families)

Je-Tupi-Carib (language family that includes both Je, Tupi and Carib languages)

Pontic (language family that includes both Indo-European and Northwest Caucasian languages)

Paleo-Balkan (an IE subfamily that includes all of: Albanian, Ilyrian, Daco-Thracian, Hellenic, Phrygian. Can also include Armenian, but no languages from other major extant IE families)

Uralo-Siberian (language family that includes Uralic, Yukaghir and Eskaleut)

Altaic (or any other language family containing both Turkic, Tungusic and Mongolic languages)

Indo-Uralic (language family that includes both Indo-European and Uralic languages)

Proto-World (all known languages in the world are proven to belong to the same macrofamily)

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:01 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

89.12%chance

16385

OptionVotes

YES

1246

943

Will "Fields that I reference when thinking about A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 16, 5:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10.74%chance

2300

OptionVotes

YES

1297

958

Which fully autonomous system will be first to replace a tenth of the humans in its field?

Jan 7, 6:39 AMApr 21, 6:59 AM

6158

OptionProbability

Fully autonomous car

Fully autonomous soldier

Fully autonomous surgeon

Fully autonomous airliner

Will renewable energy be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

81.89%chance

595

OptionVotes

YES

225

Will healthcare and telemedicine be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

May 8, 6:02 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51.43%chance

OptionVotes

YES

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:43 PMJan 2, 10:59 PM

50%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1000

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Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?

Will DeepMind researchers win a Fields Medal before 2030?

Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?

A school will integrate a full K-12 curriculum with Roblox, including language classes and virtual field

Which language families will be widely academically recognized in the field of linguistics, by EOY 2035?

Will AI/ML be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

Will "Fields that I reference when thinking about A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Which fully autonomous system will be first to replace a tenth of the humans in its field?

Will renewable energy be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

Will healthcare and telemedicine be among the fastest growing fields through 2030?

Will oil be drilled for in the field of the Antarctic Weddell Sea region before 2030?

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