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Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

77.26%chance

198241270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102453

88988

Will there exist a service for full-parameter fine-tuning of Llama 3.1 405B?

Aug 18, 12:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.74%chance

3464174

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14016

7134

Will Joe Biden live to see Luffy find the One Piece?

Feb 13, 7:58 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.23%chance

17942920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22636

7479

Will I find someone I like more than my ex by 2031?

Nov 10, 6:14 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65%chance

17435675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11829

8825

Will the Kenya Universal Basic Income experiment find that UBI significantly reduces local crime?

Jan 10, 3:40 PMMay 31, 10:59 PM

59.86%chance

35730149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2264

2144

Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?

Sep 14, 5:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.31%chance

9124264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2034

1605

🏁 F1 2025: Which Drivers Will Finish Top 3 For The 2025 FIA F1 Drivers' Championship?

Dec 9, 1:28 AMNov 30, 1:00 PM

5312116

OptionProbability

Lando Norris (McLaren)

Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

Max Verstappen (Red Bull)

Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)

Yuki Tsunoda (Previously Liam Lawson) (Red Bull)

George Russel (Mercedes)

Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes)

Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin)

Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)

Pierre Gasly (Alpine)

Jack Doohan (Alpine)

Alexander Albon (Williams)

Carlos Sainz Jr. (Williams)

Liam Lawson (Previously Yuki Tsunoda) (VCARB)

Isack Hadjar (VCARB)

Nico Hulkenberg (Sauber/Stake)

Gabriel Bortoleto (Sauber/Stake)

Esteban Ocon (Haas)

Ollie Bearman (Haas)

32

32

28

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

32.98%chance

5710753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11036

10936

Will Javier Milei finish his first term as the president of Argentina?

Feb 22, 9:47 AMOct 21, 2:59 AM

564560

OptionProbability

Yes, and he will be re-elected.

Yes, but he will not be re-elected.

No, he will not finish his first term.

64

28

7

Will the FTC's new non-compete ban be upheld on final appeal?

Apr 24, 11:45 AMSep 9, 3:59 AM

33.32%chance

241996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2718

1516

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

231547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

[FR 🇫🇷 Pol] Usul candidat à une élection avant fin 2027

Sep 29, 3:33 PMJan 1, 7:28 AM

37.89%chance

8204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

328

179

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