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House Democrats Condemn Randy Fine’s Islamophobic Remarks Against Rep. Ilhan Omar, Demand Apology and Censure Amid Rising Political Violence

24 days ago

Will there exist a service for full-parameter fine-tuning of Llama 3.1 405B?

Aug 18, 12:58 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33.74%chance

3464174

OptionVotes

YES

14016

7134

Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?

Mar 10, 8:38 PMJun 1, 6:29 AM

49.94%chance

362032

OptionVotes

YES

1109

818

Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?

Nov 11, 7:37 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

64.22%chance

401944

OptionVotes

YES

1132

652

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.84%chance

221596

OptionVotes

YES

1576

292

Capitalism and liberal democracy are going to be doing fine (or well) in 2030

Jan 6, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.64%chance

371499

OptionVotes

YES

1021

798

Will any agent perform better on Minecraft (or comparable open world game) after being fine-tuned on a manual by 2027?

Jul 11, 7:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

71.82%chance

131256

OptionVotes

YES

1267

823

Will Oceangate face more than $1M fines, settlements and judgements as a result of the submersible incident?

Jun 20, 11:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.76%chance

171064

OptionVotes

YES

1130

689

Will I (@Lion) pay a fine for being a Manifold Partner to the local authorities?

Dec 30, 2:44 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.16%chance

18716

OptionVotes

YES

1087

920

Will a journalist in the U.S. face imprisonment or fines due to their professional activities before 2029?

Jan 6, 7:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68.05%chance

12581

OptionVotes

YES

167

When will a language model be fine-tuned via self-play or expert iteration and achieve significant performance increase?

Dec 17, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:47 PM

12.92%chance

14272

OptionProbability

YES

1001

976

Will "You can remove GPT2’s LayerNorm by fine-tunin..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 9, 9:53 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.18%chance

1250

OptionVotes

YES

1248

965

Will the European Union fine Elon Musk's social network X in 2025?

Apr 4, 12:00 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

7106

OptionProbability

Over 1 million dollars

Over 100 million dollars

Over 500 million dollars

Over 1 billion dollars

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Jul 9, 2025
Jul 9, 2025
US Domestic Policy
Politics
Culture
House Democrats Condemn Randy Fine’s Islamophobic Remarks Against Rep. Ilhan Omar, Demand Apology and Censure Amid Rising Political Violence
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24 days ago

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Will there exist a service for full-parameter fine-tuning of Llama 3.1 405B?

Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?

Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

Capitalism and liberal democracy are going to be doing fine (or well) in 2030

Will any agent perform better on Minecraft (or comparable open world game) after being fine-tuned on a manual by 2027?

Will Oceangate face more than $1M fines, settlements and judgements as a result of the submersible incident?

Will I (@Lion) pay a fine for being a Manifold Partner to the local authorities?

Will a journalist in the U.S. face imprisonment or fines due to their professional activities before 2029?

When will a language model be fine-tuned via self-play or expert iteration and achieve significant performance increase?

Will "You can remove GPT2’s LayerNorm by fine-tunin..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will the European Union fine Elon Musk's social network X in 2025?

Latest stories

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