OptionProbability
@hmys does not pay back the loan on time
Levi Finkelstein will have not interacted with Manifold for at least a month at the time HMTS's debt is supposed to be paid back.
Levi forgives the debt in a stunning act of grace
@hmys declares bankruptcy, their assets are liquidated, and @levifinkelstein collects their balance, writing off the difference as an acceptable loss
@jim pays off the debt on @hmys' behalf
@hmys breaks Manifold rules to farm mana to pay off their debt (not including incidents before this was submitted)
AGI renders 2 year concerns meaningless
Manifold devalue mana 1000000000000x, making it easy for hmys to buy mana with USD to pay the debt
The full debt is completely paid off on time, leaving Levi almost two billion mana richer
@Mira waves a wand of debt cancellation, rewriting reality so the debt appears to have never been valid.
93
87
62
40
17
16
6
2
1
Daniel Sheehan
Balaji Srinivasan
Other
Eliezer Yudkowsky
RFK
Zvi Mowshowitz
Kamala Harris
Vitalik Buterin
Elon Musk
Chuck Norris
Donald Trump
Xi Jinping
Vladimir Putin
Larry Fink
23
14
10
9
7
5
3
OptionVotes
YES
NO
783
Leon Marchand
Summer McIntosh
Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone
Bobby Finke
Amit Elor
Katie Ledecky
Grant Holloway
Quincy Wilson
Torri Huske
Lee Kiefer
Ryan Crouser
Valerie Allman
Gabby Thomas
Rai Benjamin
Gretchen Walsh
Letsile Tebogo
Tara Davis-Woodhall
Noah Lyles
Sha'Carri Richardson
Kate Douglass
Katie Grimes
Regan Smith
Simone Biles
Suni Lee
Chloe Dygert
85
80
71
59
50
37
31
26
20