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Prediction markets for Fried

Sam Bankman-Fried gets pardoned or granted clemency by EOY 2032

Nov 15, 1:45 AMDec 31, 10:17 PM

15%chance

348817

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

457

Sam Bankman-Fried in prison by 2030

Dec 1, 8:33 AMJan 1, 10:00 AM

98.52%chance

245264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4446

798

Will Sam Bankman Fried receive a criminal penalty at least as severe as life imprisonment with the possibility of parole before 2030?

Nov 14, 1:32 PMDec 31, 6:30 PM

6.86%chance

163309

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2792

673

Sam Bankman-Fried will be put into solitary confinement by end 2026

Oct 17, 9:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.37%chance

202156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2353

767

Will Stephen Fry be the narrator for the "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" audiobook?

May 19, 4:42 AMSep 17, 4:39 AM

28.97%chance

251888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1566

639

What do you predict Sam Bankman-Fried's net worth will be on Nov 16, 2025? (i.e., ~3 years from the FTX crises)

Nov 16, 3:29 PMOct 15, 3:59 AM

48%chance

201863

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1347

750

Will Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?

Nov 4, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.03%chance

151400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1034

165

Will Sam Bankman-Fried's Father be arrested or serve time related to FTX by end 2025?

Nov 1, 8:15 PMDec 31, 7:00 PM

2.72%chance

10888

OptionVotes

YES

NO

957

66

Will Sam Bankman-Fried author a book that will be an New York Times bestseller before 2075?

Oct 26, 6:49 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

35.06%chance

7540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1361

735

Will Sam Bankman-Fried convert to Islam in prison?

Nov 9, 3:04 PMNov 17, 4:59 AM

7.27%chance

10525

OptionVotes

YES

NO

418

161

Will Sam Bankman-Fried launch a new crypto exchange within a year of getting out of prison?

Mar 28, 4:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

11.21%chance

7435

OptionVotes

YES

NO

447

168

Will Sam Bankman-Fried still be alive at the beginning of 2030?

Jan 5, 7:10 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.04%chance

12363

OptionVotes

NO

YES

496

154

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